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Projected increase in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis from 2015 to 2040

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  • Karissa C. Arthur

    (Neuromuscular Diseases Research Section, Laboratory of Neurogenetics, National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health
    The Commonwealth Medical College)

  • Andrea Calvo

    (University of Torino
    Neuroscience Institute of Torino)

  • T. Ryan Price

    (Statistical Genetics Group, Laboratory of Neurogenetics, National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health)

  • Joshua T. Geiger

    (Neurodegenerative Diseases Research Unit, Laboratory of Neurogenetics, National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke, National Institutes of Health)

  • Adriano Chiò

    (University of Torino
    Neuroscience Institute of Torino)

  • Bryan J. Traynor

    (Neuromuscular Diseases Research Section, Laboratory of Neurogenetics, National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health
    Brain Science Institute, Johns Hopkins University)

Abstract

Although amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is relatively rare, the socioeconomic significance of the disease is extensive. It is therefore vital to project the epidemiologic trend of ALS. To date, there have been few published studies attempting to estimate the number and distribution of ALS cases in the upcoming years. Here we show that the number of ALS cases across the globe will increase from 222,801 in 2015 to 376,674 in 2040, representing an increase of 69%. This increase is predominantly due to ageing of the population, particularly among developing nations. This projection is likely an underestimate due to improving healthcare and economic conditions. The results should be used to inform healthcare policy to more efficiently allocate healthcare resources.

Suggested Citation

  • Karissa C. Arthur & Andrea Calvo & T. Ryan Price & Joshua T. Geiger & Adriano Chiò & Bryan J. Traynor, 2016. "Projected increase in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis from 2015 to 2040," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 1-6, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:7:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms12408
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms12408
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