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Non-random patterns in viral diversity

Author

Listed:
  • Simon J. Anthony

    (Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University
    Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University
    EcoHealth Alliance)

  • Ariful Islam

    (EcoHealth Alliance)

  • Christine Johnson

    (One Health Institute & Wildlife Health Center, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California)

  • Isamara Navarrete-Macias

    (Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University)

  • Eliza Liang

    (Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University
    EcoHealth Alliance)

  • Komal Jain

    (Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University)

  • Peta L. Hitchens

    (One Health Institute & Wildlife Health Center, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California
    Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences)

  • Xiaoyu Che

    (Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University)

  • Alexander Soloyvov

    (Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University)

  • Allison L. Hicks

    (Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University)

  • Rafael Ojeda-Flores

    (Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria y Zootecnia, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria)

  • Carlos Zambrana-Torrelio

    (EcoHealth Alliance)

  • Werner Ulrich

    (Nicolaus Copernicus University)

  • Melinda K. Rostal

    (EcoHealth Alliance)

  • Alexandra Petrosov

    (Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University)

  • Joel Garcia

    (Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University)

  • Najmul Haider

    (International Centre for Diahorreal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b)
    Section for Epidemiology, National Veterinary Institute, Technical University of Denmark)

  • Nathan Wolfe

    (Metabiota, Inc. One Sutter)

  • Tracey Goldstein

    (One Health Institute & Wildlife Health Center, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California)

  • Stephen S. Morse

    (Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University)

  • Mahmudur Rahman

    (IEDCR (Institute of epidemiology and disease control research), Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of Bangladesh)

  • Jonathan H. Epstein

    (EcoHealth Alliance)

  • Jonna K. Mazet

    (One Health Institute & Wildlife Health Center, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California)

  • Peter Daszak

    (EcoHealth Alliance)

  • W. Ian Lipkin

    (Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University
    Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University)

Abstract

It is currently unclear whether changes in viral communities will ever be predictable. Here we investigate whether viral communities in wildlife are inherently structured (inferring predictability) by looking at whether communities are assembled through deterministic (often predictable) or stochastic (not predictable) processes. We sample macaque faeces across nine sites in Bangladesh and use consensus PCR and sequencing to discover 184 viruses from 14 viral families. We then use network modelling and statistical null-hypothesis testing to show the presence of non-random deterministic patterns at different scales, between sites and within individuals. We show that the effects of determinism are not absolute however, as stochastic patterns are also observed. In showing that determinism is an important process in viral community assembly we conclude that it should be possible to forecast changes to some portion of a viral community, however there will always be some portion for which prediction will be unlikely.

Suggested Citation

  • Simon J. Anthony & Ariful Islam & Christine Johnson & Isamara Navarrete-Macias & Eliza Liang & Komal Jain & Peta L. Hitchens & Xiaoyu Che & Alexander Soloyvov & Allison L. Hicks & Rafael Ojeda-Flores , 2015. "Non-random patterns in viral diversity," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-7, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:6:y:2015:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms9147
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms9147
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