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Skilful multi-year predictions of tropical trans-basin climate variability

Author

Listed:
  • Yoshimitsu Chikamoto

    (International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa)

  • Axel Timmermann

    (International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa
    University of Hawaii at Manoa)

  • Jing-Jia Luo

    (Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology)

  • Takashi Mochizuki

    (Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology)

  • Masahide Kimoto

    (Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo)

  • Masahiro Watanabe

    (Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo)

  • Masayoshi Ishii

    (Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency)

  • Shang-Ping Xie

    (Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego)

  • Fei-Fei Jin

    (University of Hawaii at Manoa)

Abstract

Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies influence the atmospheric circulation, impacting climate far beyond the tropics. The predictability of the corresponding atmospheric signals is typically limited to less than 1 year lead time. Here we present observational and modelling evidence for multi-year predictability of coherent trans-basin climate variations that are characterized by a zonal seesaw in tropical sea surface temperature and sea-level pressure between the Pacific and the other two ocean basins. State-of-the-art climate model forecasts initialized from a realistic ocean state show that the low-frequency trans-basin climate variability, which explains part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation flavours, can be predicted up to 3 years ahead, thus exceeding the predictive skill of current tropical climate forecasts for natural variability. This low-frequency variability emerges from the synchronization of ocean anomalies in all basins via global reorganizations of the atmospheric Walker Circulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Yoshimitsu Chikamoto & Axel Timmermann & Jing-Jia Luo & Takashi Mochizuki & Masahide Kimoto & Masahiro Watanabe & Masayoshi Ishii & Shang-Ping Xie & Fei-Fei Jin, 2015. "Skilful multi-year predictions of tropical trans-basin climate variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-7, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:6:y:2015:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms7869
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms7869
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