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Bidecadal North Atlantic ocean circulation variability controlled by timing of volcanic eruptions

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  • Didier Swingedouw

    (Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux (EPOC), UMR CNRS 5805 EPOC—OASU—Université de Bordeaux, Allée Geoffroy Saint-Hilaire)

  • Pablo Ortega

    (LOCEAN/IPSL Sorbonne Universités (UPMC, Univ Paris 06)-CNRS-IRD-MNHN)

  • Juliette Mignot

    (LOCEAN/IPSL Sorbonne Universités (UPMC, Univ Paris 06)-CNRS-IRD-MNHN
    Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern
    Oeschger Centre of. Climate Change Research, University of Bern)

  • Eric Guilyardi

    (LOCEAN/IPSL Sorbonne Universités (UPMC, Univ Paris 06)-CNRS-IRD-MNHN
    NCAS-Climate, Univeristy of Reading)

  • Valérie Masson-Delmotte

    (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, UMR8212))

  • Paul G. Butler

    (School of Ocean Sciences, Bangor University, Menai Bridge, Anglesey LL59 5AB, UK)

  • Myriam Khodri

    (LOCEAN/IPSL Sorbonne Universités (UPMC, Univ Paris 06)-CNRS-IRD-MNHN)

  • Roland Séférian

    (Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques–Groupe d’Etude de l’Atmosphère Météorologique/Groupe de Météorologie de Grande Echelle et Climat)

Abstract

While bidecadal climate variability has been evidenced in several North Atlantic paleoclimate records, its drivers remain poorly understood. Here we show that the subset of CMIP5 historical climate simulations that produce such bidecadal variability exhibits a robust synchronization, with a maximum in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) 15 years after the 1963 Agung eruption. The mechanisms at play involve salinity advection from the Arctic and explain the timing of Great Salinity Anomalies observed in the 1970s and the 1990s. Simulations, as well as Greenland and Iceland paleoclimate records, indicate that coherent bidecadal cycles were excited following five Agung-like volcanic eruptions of the last millennium. Climate simulations and a conceptual model reveal that destructive interference caused by the Pinatubo 1991 eruption may have damped the observed decreasing trend of the AMOC in the 2000s. Our results imply a long-lasting climatic impact and predictability following the next Agung-like eruption.

Suggested Citation

  • Didier Swingedouw & Pablo Ortega & Juliette Mignot & Eric Guilyardi & Valérie Masson-Delmotte & Paul G. Butler & Myriam Khodri & Roland Séférian, 2015. "Bidecadal North Atlantic ocean circulation variability controlled by timing of volcanic eruptions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-12, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:6:y:2015:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms7545
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms7545
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    Cited by:

    1. Simon L. L. Michel & Didier Swingedouw & Pablo Ortega & Guillaume Gastineau & Juliette Mignot & Gerard McCarthy & Myriam Khodri, 2022. "Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, December.

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