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Northern-hemispheric differential warming is the key to understanding the discrepancies in the projected Sahel rainfall

Author

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  • Jong-Yeon Park

    (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
    International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling)

  • Jürgen Bader

    (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
    Uni Climate, Uni Research & the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research)

  • Daniela Matei

    (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology)

Abstract

Future projections of the Sahel rainfall are highly uncertain, with different climate models showing widely differing rainfall trends. Moreover, the twentieth-century cross-model consensus linking Sahel rainfall to tropical sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) is no longer applicable in the twenty-first century. Here we show that the diverse future Northern Hemisphere differential warming between extratropical and tropical SSTs can explain the discrepancy in the projected Sahel rainfall. The relationship between SST and Sahel rainfall that holds for the twentieth-century persists into the twenty-first century when the differential SST warming is taken into account. A suite of SST-sensitivity experiments confirms that strong Northern Hemisphere extratropical warming induces a significant increase in Sahel rainfall, which can predominate over the drying impact of tropical SST warming. These results indicate that a trustworthy projection of Sahel rainfall requires the estimation of the most likely future Northern-hemispheric differential warming.

Suggested Citation

  • Jong-Yeon Park & Jürgen Bader & Daniela Matei, 2015. "Northern-hemispheric differential warming is the key to understanding the discrepancies in the projected Sahel rainfall," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-8, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:6:y:2015:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms6985
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms6985
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    Cited by:

    1. Ziming Chen & Tianjun Zhou & Xiaolong Chen & Wenxia Zhang & Lixia Zhang & Mingna Wu & Liwei Zou, 2022. "Observationally constrained projection of Afro-Asian monsoon precipitation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Alessandra Giannini & Alexey Kaplan, 2019. "The role of aerosols and greenhouse gases in Sahel drought and recovery," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 152(3), pages 449-466, March.
    3. Ahmed Elkouk & Zine El Abidine Morjani & Yadu Pokhrel & Abdelghani Chehbouni & Abdelfattah Sifeddine & Stephan Thober & Lhoussaine Bouchaou, 2021. "Multi-model ensemble projections of soil moisture drought over North Africa and the Sahel region under 1.5, 2, and 3 °C global warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(3), pages 1-18, August.

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