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The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Sonia Jerez

    (University of Murcia)

  • Isabelle Tobin

    (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE), IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ)

  • Robert Vautard

    (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE), IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ)

  • Juan Pedro Montávez

    (University of Murcia)

  • Jose María López-Romero

    (University of Murcia)

  • Françoise Thais

    (Institut de Technico-Economie des Systèmes Energétiques (I-Tésé), CEA/DEN/DANS)

  • Blanka Bartok

    (Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science
    Babes-Bolyai University)

  • Ole Bøssing Christensen

    (Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI))

  • Augustin Colette

    (Institut National de l’Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS))

  • Michel Déqué

    (Météo-France/CNRM, CNRS/GAME)

  • Grigory Nikulin

    (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI))

  • Sven Kotlarski

    (Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science)

  • Erik van Meijgaard

    (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI))

  • Claas Teichmann

    (Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS))

  • Martin Wild

    (Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science)

Abstract

Ambitious climate change mitigation plans call for a significant increase in the use of renewables, which could, however, make the supply system more vulnerable to climate variability and changes. Here we evaluate climate change impacts on solar photovoltaic (PV) power in Europe using the recent EURO-CORDEX ensemble of high-resolution climate projections together with a PV power production model and assuming a well-developed European PV power fleet. Results indicate that the alteration of solar PV supply by the end of this century compared with the estimations made under current climate conditions should be in the range (−14%;+2%), with the largest decreases in Northern countries. Temporal stability of power generation does not appear as strongly affected in future climate scenarios either, even showing a slight positive trend in Southern countries. Therefore, despite small decreases in production expected in some parts of Europe, climate change is unlikely to threaten the European PV sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Sonia Jerez & Isabelle Tobin & Robert Vautard & Juan Pedro Montávez & Jose María López-Romero & Françoise Thais & Blanka Bartok & Ole Bøssing Christensen & Augustin Colette & Michel Déqué & Grigory Ni, 2015. "The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:6:y:2015:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms10014
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms10014
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    Cited by:

    1. Ha, Subin & Zhou, Zixuan & Im, Eun-Soon & Lee, Young-Mi, 2023. "Comparative assessment of future solar power potential based on CMIP5 and CMIP6 multi-model ensembles," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 324-335.
    2. Srihari Sundar & Michael T. Craig & Ashley E. Payne & David J. Brayshaw & Flavio Lehner, 2023. "Meteorological drivers of resource adequacy failures in current and high renewable Western U.S. power systems," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    3. Ghanim, Marrwa S. & Farhan, Ammar A., 2023. "Projected patterns of climate change impact on photovoltaic energy potential: A case study of Iraq," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 338-346.
    4. Zuluaga, Cristian Felipe & Avila-Diaz, Alvaro & Justino, Flavio B. & Martins, Fernando Ramos & Ceron, Wilmar L., 2022. "The climate change perspective of photovoltaic power potential in Brazil," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 1019-1031.
    5. Pan Xia & Lu Zhang & Min Min & Jun Li & Yun Wang & Yu Yu & Shengjie Jia, 2024. "Accurate nowcasting of cloud cover at solar photovoltaic plants using geostationary satellite images," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    6. Haddeland, I. & Hole, J. & Holmqvist, E. & Koestler, V. & Sidelnikova, M. & Veie, C.A. & Wold, M., 2022. "Effects of climate on renewable energy sources and electricity supply in Norway," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 625-637.
    7. Gabrielli, Paolo & Aboutalebi, Reyhaneh & Sansavini, Giovanni, 2022. "Mitigating financial risk of corporate power purchase agreements via portfolio optimization," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    8. Costoya, X. & deCastro, M. & Carvalho, D. & Gómez-Gesteira, M., 2023. "Assessing the complementarity of future hybrid wind and solar photovoltaic energy resources for North America," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    9. Fortes, Patrícia & Simoes, Sofia G. & Amorim, Filipa & Siggini, Gildas & Sessa, Valentina & Saint-Drenan, Yves-Marie & Carvalho, Sílvia & Mujtaba, Babar & Diogo, Paulo & Assoumou, Edi, 2022. "How sensitive is a carbon-neutral power sector to climate change? The interplay between hydro, solar and wind for Portugal," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PB).
    10. Zhang, Yi & Cheng, Chuntian & Yang, Tiantian & Jin, Xiaoyu & Jia, Zebin & Shen, Jianjian & Wu, Xinyu, 2022. "Assessment of climate change impacts on the hydro-wind-solar energy supply system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    11. Backe, Stian & Ahang, Mohammadreza & Tomasgard, Asgeir, 2021. "Stable stochastic capacity expansion with variable renewables: Comparing moment matching and stratified scenario generation sampling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    12. Tamer, Tolga & Gürsel Dino, Ipek & Meral Akgül, Cagla, 2022. "Data-driven, long-term prediction of building performance under climate change: Building energy demand and BIPV energy generation analysis across Turkey," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    13. Shih‐Chieh Liao & Shih‐Chieh Chang & Tsung‐Chi Cheng, 2022. "Index‐based renewable energy insurance for Taiwan Solar Photovoltaic Power Plants," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 145-172, June.
    14. Park, Changyong & Shin, Seok-Woo & Kim, Gayoung & Cha, Dong-Hyun & Min, Seung-Ki & Lee, Donghyun & Byun, Young-Hwa & Kim, Jin-Uk, 2022. "What determines future changes in photovoltaic potential over East Asia?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 338-347.
    15. Laibao Liu & Gang He & Mengxi Wu & Gang Liu & Haoran Zhang & Ying Chen & Jiashu Shen & Shuangcheng Li, 2023. "Climate change impacts on planned supply–demand match in global wind and solar energy systems," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 8(8), pages 870-880, August.
    16. Müller, Inga M., 2022. "Energy system modeling with aggregated time series: A profiling approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    17. Craig, Michael T. & Cohen, Stuart & Macknick, Jordan & Draxl, Caroline & Guerra, Omar J. & Sengupta, Manajit & Haupt, Sue Ellen & Hodge, Bri-Mathias & Brancucci, Carlo, 2018. "A review of the potential impacts of climate change on bulk power system planning and operations in the United States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 255-267.
    18. Costoya, X. & deCastro, M. & Carvalho, D. & Arguilé-Pérez, B. & Gómez-Gesteira, M., 2022. "Combining offshore wind and solar photovoltaic energy to stabilize energy supply under climate change scenarios: A case study on the western Iberian Peninsula," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    19. Song, Zhe & Liu, Jia & Yang, Hongxing, 2021. "Air pollution and soiling implications for solar photovoltaic power generation: A comprehensive review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    20. Dutta, Riya & Chanda, Kironmala & Maity, Rajib, 2022. "Future of solar energy potential in a changing climate across the world: A CMIP6 multi-model ensemble analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 819-829.
    21. Li, He & Liu, Pan & Guo, Shenglian & Cheng, Lei & Huang, Kangdi & Feng, Maoyuan & He, Shaokun & Ming, Bo, 2021. "Deriving adaptive long-term complementary operating rules for a large-scale hydro-photovoltaic hybrid power plant using ensemble Kalman filter," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).

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