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Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model

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  • Chris A. Boulton

    (Earth System Science, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, Laver Building (Level 7), University of Exeter)

  • Lesley C. Allison

    (Earth System Science, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, Laver Building (Level 7), University of Exeter)

  • Timothy M. Lenton

    (Earth System Science, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, Laver Building (Level 7), University of Exeter)

Abstract

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exhibits two stable states in models of varying complexity. Shifts between alternative AMOC states are thought to have played a role in past abrupt climate changes, but the proximity of the climate system to a threshold for future AMOC collapse is unknown. Generic early warning signals of critical slowing down before AMOC collapse have been found in climate models of low and intermediate complexity. Here we show that early warning signals of AMOC collapse are present in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, subject to a freshwater hosing experiment. The statistical significance of signals of increasing lag-1 autocorrelation and variance vary with latitude. They give up to 250 years warning before AMOC collapse, after ~550 years of monitoring. Future work is needed to clarify suggested dynamical mechanisms driving critical slowing down as the AMOC collapse is approached.

Suggested Citation

  • Chris A. Boulton & Lesley C. Allison & Timothy M. Lenton, 2014. "Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 5(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:5:y:2014:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms6752
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms6752
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    Cited by:

    1. Beatriz Arellano-Nava & Paul R. Halloran & Chris A. Boulton & James Scourse & Paul G. Butler & David J. Reynolds & Timothy M. Lenton, 2022. "Destabilisation of the Subpolar North Atlantic prior to the Little Ice Age," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    2. James Tan & Siew Ann Cheong, 2016. "The Regime Shift Associated with the 2004–2008 US Housing Market Bubble," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(9), pages 1-8, September.
    3. Haoyu Wen & Massimo Pica Ciamarra & Siew Ann Cheong, 2018. "How one might miss early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data: A systematic study of two major currency pairs," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(3), pages 1-22, March.
    4. Simon L. L. Michel & Didier Swingedouw & Pablo Ortega & Guillaume Gastineau & Juliette Mignot & Gerard McCarthy & Myriam Khodri, 2022. "Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, December.
    5. Timothy M. Lenton & Jesse F. Abrams & Annett Bartsch & Sebastian Bathiany & Chris A. Boulton & Joshua E. Buxton & Alessandra Conversi & Andrew M. Cunliffe & Sophie Hebden & Thomas Lavergne & Benjamin , 2024. "Remotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.

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