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Validation of climate model-inferred regional temperature change for late-glacial Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Oliver Heiri

    (Palaeoecology, Institute of Plant Sciences and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Altenbergrain 21, CH-3013 Bern, Switzerland)

  • Stephen J. Brooks

    (Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK)

  • Hans Renssen

    (Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1081, NL-1081HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands)

  • Alan Bedford

    (Edge Hill University, St Helen’s Road, Ormskirk L39 4QP, UK)

  • Marjolein Hazekamp

    (Palaeoecology, Geosciences, Utrecht University, Budapestlaan 4, NL-3584 CD Utrecht, The Netherlands)

  • Boris Ilyashuk

    (Institute of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Technikerstraße 25, A-6020 Innsbruck, Austria)

  • Elizabeth S. Jeffers

    (Long-Term Ecology Laboratory, Biodiversity Institute, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK)

  • Barbara Lang

    (Strata Environmental, 12 Chapel Walks, Kirkham, Preston)

  • Emiliya Kirilova

    (Palaeoecology, Geosciences, Utrecht University, Budapestlaan 4, NL-3584 CD Utrecht, The Netherlands)

  • Saskia Kuiper

    (Palaeoecology, Geosciences, Utrecht University, Budapestlaan 4, NL-3584 CD Utrecht, The Netherlands)

  • Laurent Millet

    (Laboratoire Chrono-Environnement, UMR 6249 CNRS, UFR Sciences et Techniques, Université de Franche-Comté)

  • Stéphanie Samartin

    (Palaeoecology, Institute of Plant Sciences and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Altenbergrain 21, CH-3013 Bern, Switzerland)

  • Monika Toth

    (Balaton Limnological Institute, MTA Centre for Ecological Research, Klebelsberg K. 3, HU-8237 Tihany, Hungary)

  • Frederike Verbruggen

    (Palaeoecology, Geosciences, Utrecht University, Budapestlaan 4, NL-3584 CD Utrecht, The Netherlands)

  • Jenny E. Watson

    (School of Geography, Archaeology and Palaeoecology, Queens University)

  • Nelleke van Asch

    (Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3508 TC Utrecht, The Netherlands)

  • Emmy Lammertsma

    (Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3508 TC Utrecht, The Netherlands)

  • Leeli Amon

    (Institute of Geology at Tallinn University of Technology, Ehitajate tee 5, 19086 Tallinn, Estonia)

  • Hilary H. Birks

    (University of Bergen, PO Box 7803, N-5020 Bergen, Norway)

  • H. John B Birks

    (University of Bergen, PO Box 7803, N-5020 Bergen, Norway
    ECRC, University College London
    School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford)

  • Morten F. Mortensen

    (The National Museum of Denmark, Environmental Archaeology and Materials Science, Ny Vestergade 11, 1471 Copenhagen, Denmark)

  • Wim Z. Hoek

    (Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3508 TC Utrecht, The Netherlands)

  • Enikö Magyari

    (Hungarian Academy of Sciences-Natural History Museum, Research group for Paleontology, Paleontology, PO Box 222, HU-1476 Budapest, Hungary)

  • Castor Muñoz Sobrino

    (University of Vigo, Campus As Lagoas-Marcosende s/n, E-36310 Vigo, Spain)

  • Heikki Seppä

    (University of Helsinki, PO Box 64, Helsinki FI-00014, Finland)

  • Willy Tinner

    (Palaeoecology, Institute of Plant Sciences and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Altenbergrain 21, CH-3013 Bern, Switzerland)

  • Spassimir Tonkov

    (Laboratory of Palynology, Faculty of Biology, University of Sofia, Dragan Tzankov 8, 1164 Sofia, Bulgaria)

  • Siim Veski

    (Institute of Geology at Tallinn University of Technology, Ehitajate tee 5, 19086 Tallinn, Estonia)

  • André F. Lotter

    (Palaeoecology, Geosciences, Utrecht University, Budapestlaan 4, NL-3584 CD Utrecht, The Netherlands)

Abstract

Comparisons of climate model hindcasts with independent proxy data are essential for assessing model performance in non-analogue situations. However, standardized palaeoclimate data sets for assessing the spatial pattern of past climatic change across continents are lacking for some of the most dynamic episodes of Earth’s recent past. Here we present a new chironomid-based palaeotemperature dataset designed to assess climate model hindcasts of regional summer temperature change in Europe during the late-glacial and early Holocene. Latitudinal and longitudinal patterns of inferred temperature change are in excellent agreement with simulations by the ECHAM-4 model, implying that atmospheric general circulation models like ECHAM-4 can successfully predict regionally diverging temperature trends in Europe, even when conditions differ significantly from present. However, ECHAM-4 infers larger amplitudes of change and higher temperatures during warm phases than our palaeotemperature estimates, suggesting that this and similar models may overestimate past and potentially also future summer temperature changes in Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Oliver Heiri & Stephen J. Brooks & Hans Renssen & Alan Bedford & Marjolein Hazekamp & Boris Ilyashuk & Elizabeth S. Jeffers & Barbara Lang & Emiliya Kirilova & Saskia Kuiper & Laurent Millet & Stéphan, 2014. "Validation of climate model-inferred regional temperature change for late-glacial Europe," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 5(1), pages 1-7, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:5:y:2014:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms5914
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms5914
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