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Predicting the risk of avian influenza A H7N9 infection in live-poultry markets across Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Marius Gilbert

    (Biological Control and Spatial Ecology, Université Libre de Bruxelles
    Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Nick Golding

    (Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, University of Oxford, Tinbergen Building)

  • Hang Zhou

    (Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • G. R. William Wint

    (Environmental Research Group Oxford, University of Oxford)

  • Timothy P. Robinson

    (Livestock Systems and Environment (LSE), International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI))

  • Andrew J. Tatem

    (Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health
    University of Southampton)

  • Shengjie Lai

    (Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Sheng Zhou

    (Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Hui Jiang

    (Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Danhuai Guo

    (Scientific Data Center, Computer Network Information Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Zhongguancun Nansijie)

  • Zhi Huang

    (Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, University of Oxford, Tinbergen Building)

  • Jane P. Messina

    (Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, University of Oxford, Tinbergen Building)

  • Xiangming Xiao

    (Center for Spatial Analysis, University of Oklahoma
    Institute of Biodiversity Sciences, Fudan University)

  • Catherine Linard

    (Biological Control and Spatial Ecology, Université Libre de Bruxelles
    Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Thomas P. Van Boeckel

    (Biological Control and Spatial Ecology, Université Libre de Bruxelles
    Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Vincent Martin

    (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Representation in Senegal)

  • Samir Bhatt

    (Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, University of Oxford, Tinbergen Building)

  • Peter W. Gething

    (Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, University of Oxford, Tinbergen Building)

  • Jeremy J. Farrar

    (Oxford University Clinical Research Unit–Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Unit)

  • Simon I. Hay

    (Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, University of Oxford, Tinbergen Building
    Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health)

  • Hongjie Yu

    (Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

Abstract

Two epidemic waves of an avian influenza A (H7N9) virus have so far affected China. Most human cases have been attributable to poultry exposure at live-poultry markets, where most positive isolates were sampled. The potential geographic extent of potential re-emerging epidemics is unknown, as are the factors associated with it. Using newly assembled data sets of the locations of 8,943 live-poultry markets in China and maps of environmental correlates, we develop a statistical model that accurately predicts the risk of H7N9 market infection across Asia. Local density of live-poultry markets is the most important predictor of H7N9 infection risk in markets, underscoring their key role in the spatial epidemiology of H7N9, alongside other poultry, land cover and anthropogenic predictor variables. Identification of areas in Asia with high suitability for H7N9 infection enhances our capacity to target biosurveillance and control, helping to restrict the spread of this important disease.

Suggested Citation

  • Marius Gilbert & Nick Golding & Hang Zhou & G. R. William Wint & Timothy P. Robinson & Andrew J. Tatem & Shengjie Lai & Sheng Zhou & Hui Jiang & Danhuai Guo & Zhi Huang & Jane P. Messina & Xiangming X, 2014. "Predicting the risk of avian influenza A H7N9 infection in live-poultry markets across Asia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 5(1), pages 1-7, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:5:y:2014:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms5116
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms5116
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