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Estimating the potential public health impact of seasonal malaria chemoprevention in African children

Author

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  • Matthew Cairns

    (MRC Tropical Epidemiology Group, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)

  • Arantxa Roca-Feltrer

    (Malawi-Liverpool-Wellcome Trust Clinical Research Programme, College of Medicine
    Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine)

  • Tini Garske

    (MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus)

  • Anne L. Wilson

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)

  • Diadier Diallo

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
    URCN/IRSS-Centre Muraz, Bobo Dioulasso, 11 PB 218 CMS)

  • Paul J. Milligan

    (MRC Tropical Epidemiology Group, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)

  • Azra C Ghani

    (MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus)

  • Brian M. Greenwood

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)

Abstract

Seasonal malaria chemoprevention, previously known as intermittent preventive treatment in children, is highly effective in areas with a short malaria transmission season. Here we assess seasonality in malaria incidence data and define a predictor of seasonality based on rainfall. We then use spatial rainfall, malaria endemicity and population data to identify areas likely to have highly seasonal malaria incidence, and estimate the population at risk and malaria burden in areas where seasonal malaria chemoprevention would be appropriate. We estimate that in areas suitable for seasonal malaria chemoprevention, there are 39 million children under 5 years of age, who experience 33.7 million malaria episodes and 152,000 childhood deaths from malaria each year. The majority of this burden occurs in the Sahelian or sub-Sahelian regions of Africa. Our data suggest that seasonal malaria chemoprevention has the potential to avert several million malaria cases and tens of thousands of childhood deaths each year if successfully delivered to the populations at risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew Cairns & Arantxa Roca-Feltrer & Tini Garske & Anne L. Wilson & Diadier Diallo & Paul J. Milligan & Azra C Ghani & Brian M. Greenwood, 2012. "Estimating the potential public health impact of seasonal malaria chemoprevention in African children," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 3(1), pages 1-9, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:3:y:2012:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms1879
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms1879
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    Cited by:

    1. John E. Ataguba, 2019. "Socio‐economic inequality in health service utilisation: Does accounting for seasonality in health‐seeking behaviour matter?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(11), pages 1370-1376, November.
    2. Edmund I. Yamba & Adrian M. Tompkins & Andreas H. Fink & Volker Ermert & Mbouna D. Amelie & Leonard K. Amekudzi & Olivier J. T. Briët, 2020. "Monthly Entomological Inoculation Rate Data for Studying the Seasonality of Malaria Transmission in Africa," Data, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-17, March.
    3. T Alex Perkins & Thomas W Scott & Arnaud Le Menach & David L Smith, 2013. "Heterogeneity, Mixing, and the Spatial Scales of Mosquito-Borne Pathogen Transmission," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(12), pages 1-16, December.
    4. Tini Garske & Neil M Ferguson & Azra C Ghani, 2013. "Estimating Air Temperature and Its Influence on Malaria Transmission across Africa," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(2), pages 1-13, February.
    5. Erika Wallender & Ali Mohamed Ali & Emma Hughes & Abel Kakuru & Prasanna Jagannathan & Mary Kakuru Muhindo & Bishop Opira & Meghan Whalen & Liusheng Huang & Marvin Duvalsaint & Jenny Legac & Moses R. , 2021. "Identifying an optimal dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine dosing regimen for malaria prevention in young Ugandan children," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, December.
    6. Lucy Smith Paintain & Jan Kolaczinski & Melanie Renshaw & Scott Filler & Albert Kilian & Jayne Webster & Kojo Lokko & Matthew Lynch, 2013. "Sustaining Fragile Gains: The Need to Maintain Coverage with Long-Lasting Insecticidal Nets for Malaria Control and Likely Implications of Not Doing So," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(12), pages 1-8, December.

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