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Long-term projections and acclimatization scenarios of temperature-related mortality in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Joan Ballester

    (Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3))

  • Jean-Marie Robine

    (INSERM, Démographie et santé, CRLC, centre Val-d'Aurelle, parc Euromédecine, 34298 Montpellier cedex 5, France.)

  • François Richard Herrmann

    (Geneva Medical School and University Hospitals, 3, ch. Pont-Bochet)

  • Xavier Rodó

    (Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3)
    Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA))

Abstract

The steady increase in greenhouse gas concentrations is inducing a detectable rise in global temperatures. The sensitivity of human societies to warming temperatures is, however, a transcendental question not comprehensively addressed to date. Here we show the link between temperature, humidity and daily numbers of deaths in nearly 200 European regions, which are subsequently used to infer transient projections of mortality under state-of-the-art high-resolution greenhouse gas scenario simulations. Our analyses point to a change in the seasonality of mortality, with maximum monthly incidence progressively shifting from winter to summer. The results also show that the rise in heat-related mortality will start to completely compensate the reduction of deaths from cold during the second half of the century, amounting to an average drop in human lifespan of up 3–4 months in 2070–2100. Nevertheless, projections suggest that human lifespan might indeed increase if a substantial degree of adaptation to warm temperatures takes place.

Suggested Citation

  • Joan Ballester & Jean-Marie Robine & François Richard Herrmann & Xavier Rodó, 2011. "Long-term projections and acclimatization scenarios of temperature-related mortality in Europe," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 2(1), pages 1-8, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:2:y:2011:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms1360
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms1360
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    Cited by:

    1. Maria Papathoma-Koehle & Catrin Promper & Roxana Bojariu & Roxana Cica & András Sik & Kinga Perge & Peter László & Erika Balázs Czikora & Alexandru Dumitrescu & Cosmin Turcus & Marius-Victor Birsan & , 2016. "A common methodology for risk assessment and mapping for south-east Europe: an application for heat wave risk in Romania," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(1), pages 89-109, May.
    2. Nwaerema Peace, 2020. "Impact of Climate Change on Insects, Pest, Diseases and Animal Biodiversity," International Journal of Environmental Sciences & Natural Resources, Juniper Publishers Inc., vol. 23(4), pages 175-178, March.
    3. Laurent Lévy & Jean-Marie Robine & Grégoire Rey & Raúl Fernando Méndez Turrubiates & Marcos Quijal-Zamorano & Hicham Achebak & Joan Ballester & Xavier Rodó & François R. Herrmann, 2022. "Daylight saving time affects European mortality patterns," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Nwaerema Peace, 2020. "Impact of Climate Change on Insects, Pest, Diseases and Animal Biodiversity," International Journal of Environmental Sciences & Natural Resources, Juniper Publishers Inc., vol. 23(4), pages 165-167, March.

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