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From short-term uncertainties to long-term certainties in the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Author

Listed:
  • Violaine Coulon

    (Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB))

  • Ann Kristin Klose

    (Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
    University of Potsdam, Department of Physics and Astronomy)

  • Tamsin Edwards

    (Department of Geography, King’s College London)

  • Fiona Turner

    (Department of Geography, King’s College London)

  • Frank Pattyn

    (Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB))

  • Ricarda Winkelmann

    (Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
    University of Potsdam, Department of Physics and Astronomy
    Max Planck Institute of Geoanthropology, Integrative Earth System Science)

Abstract

Robust projections of future sea-level rise are essential for coastal adaptation, yet they remain hampered by uncertainties in Antarctic ice-sheet projections–the largest potential contributor to sea-level change under global warming. Here, we combine two ice-sheet models, systematically sample parametric and climate uncertainties, and calibrate against historical observations to quantify Antarctic ice-sheet changes to 2300 and beyond. By 2300, the projected Antarctic sea-level contributions range from -0.09 m to +1.74 m under low emissions (SSP1-2.6, outer limits of 5-95% probability intervals), and from +0.73 m to +5.95 m under very high emissions (SSP5-8.5). Irrespective of the wide range of uncertainties explored, large-scale Antarctic ice-sheet retreat is triggered under SSP5-8.5, while reaching net-zero emissions well before 2100 strongly reduces multi-centennial ice loss. Yet, even under such strong mitigation, a significant sea-level contribution could still result from West Antarctica. Our results suggest that current mitigation efforts may not be sufficient to avoid self-sustained Antarctic ice loss, making emission decisions taken in the coming years decisive for future sea-level rise.

Suggested Citation

  • Violaine Coulon & Ann Kristin Klose & Tamsin Edwards & Fiona Turner & Frank Pattyn & Ricarda Winkelmann, 2025. "From short-term uncertainties to long-term certainties in the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-66178-w
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-66178-w
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