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Political development predicts reduced human cost of flooding

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  • Paola Vesco

    (Peace Research Institute Oslo)

  • Nina von Uexkull

    (Peace Research Institute Oslo
    Uppsala University, Department of Peace and Conflict Research
    University of Konstanz, Department of Politics and Public Administration)

  • Jonas Vestby

    (Peace Research Institute Oslo)

  • Halvard Buhaug

    (Peace Research Institute Oslo
    Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Department of Sociology and Political Science)

Abstract

Societal impacts from extreme climate and weather events depend not only on hazard magnitude but also on the vulnerability of the affected population. Existing research suggests that adverse socioeconomic conditions are associated with higher baseline vulnerability to many types of risk, but comparatively little attention has been paid to political drivers of vulnerability. Focusing on floods, the most frequent climate-related hazard, this article evaluates the impact of political development on flood mortality. Findings from a Bayesian predictive analysis of global flood impacts from 2000 to 2018 suggest that democracy, institutional quality, and peace reduce the predicted human cost of flooding. The effect of a breakdown of peace on predicted flood mortality is especially pronounced. These results indicate that promoting peace, justice, and strong institutions (Sustainable Development Goal 16) can help to mitigate disaster risks and support effective climate change adaptation.

Suggested Citation

  • Paola Vesco & Nina von Uexkull & Jonas Vestby & Halvard Buhaug, 2025. "Political development predicts reduced human cost of flooding," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-65914-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-65914-6
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