IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v16y2025i1d10.1038_s41467-025-65608-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Topographically-controlled contribution of avalanches to glacier mass balance in the 21st century

Author

Listed:
  • Marin Kneib

    (ETH Zurich, Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW)
    bâtiment ALPOLE, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL)
    IRD, Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement, Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS
    University of Innsbruck, Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences)

  • Fabien Maussion

    (University of Innsbruck, Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences
    University of Bristol, School of Geographical Sciences)

  • Fanny Brun

    (IRD, Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement, Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS)

  • Guillem Carcanade

    (IRD, Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement, Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS)

  • Daniel Farinotti

    (ETH Zurich, Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW)
    bâtiment ALPOLE, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL))

  • Matthias Huss

    (ETH Zurich, Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW)
    bâtiment ALPOLE, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL)
    University of Fribourg, Department of Geosciences)

  • Marit van Tiel

    (ETH Zurich, Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW)
    bâtiment ALPOLE, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL))

  • Achille Jouberton

    (ISTA, Institute of Science and Technology Austria)

  • Patrick Schmitt

    (University of Innsbruck, Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences)

  • Lilian Schuster

    (University of Innsbruck, Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences)

  • Amaury Dehecq

    (IRD, Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement, Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS)

  • Nicolas Champollion

    (IRD, Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement, Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS)

Abstract

Glaciers are often located in steep mountain settings and avalanches from surrounding slopes can strongly influence snow accumulation patterns on their surface. This effect has however never been quantified for more than a few glaciers and the impact on the future evolution of glaciers is unclear. We coupled an avalanche and a glacier model to estimate the contribution of avalanches to the accumulation of all glaciers in the world and how this affects their evolution throughout the 21st century. Globally, 3% of the snow accumulation on glaciers comes from avalanches and 1% is removed by avalanches. This net contribution varies between regions and glaciers, with a maximum of 15% for New Zealand. Accounting for avalanches modifies the altitudinal pattern of glacier mass balance and the projected evolution of individual glaciers. The main effects include (1) a longer persistence of small glaciers, with for example three times more ice retained by glaciers smaller than 1 km2 in Central Europe under a low-emission scenario, and (2) an increased sensitivity of high-elevation accumulation zones to future warming. We anticipate the relative influence of avalanches to increase in the future and advocate for a better monitoring of this process and representation in glacier models.

Suggested Citation

  • Marin Kneib & Fabien Maussion & Fanny Brun & Guillem Carcanade & Daniel Farinotti & Matthias Huss & Marit van Tiel & Achille Jouberton & Patrick Schmitt & Lilian Schuster & Amaury Dehecq & Nicolas Cha, 2025. "Topographically-controlled contribution of avalanches to glacier mass balance in the 21st century," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-65608-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-65608-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-65608-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-025-65608-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-65608-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.