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Explainable AI unravels sepsis heterogeneity via coagulation-inflammation profiles for prognosis and stratification

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  • Li Zhu

    (Nanchang University, School of Information Engineering, Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Advanced Signal Processing and Intelligent Communications
    Chongqing University, Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Chongqing Emergency Medical Center, Chongqing University Central Hospital, School of Medicine)

  • Zengtian Chen

    (Nanchang University, School of Information Engineering, Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Advanced Signal Processing and Intelligent Communications)

  • Hong Zhang

    (Chongqing University, Department of Laboratory Medicine, Chongqing Center for Clinical Laboratory, Chongqing Academy of Medical Sciences, Chongqing General Hospital, School of Medicine)

  • Hongjun Chen

    (Nanchang University, School of Information Engineering, Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Advanced Signal Processing and Intelligent Communications)

  • Lanqi Liu

    (Nanchang University, School of Medicine)

  • Wei Yu

    (The Affiliated Lihuili Hospital of Ningbo University, Ningbo Institute of Innovation for Combined Medicine and Engineering (NIIME))

  • Kai Wu

    (Nanchang University, School of Information Engineering, Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Advanced Signal Processing and Intelligent Communications)

  • Yijin Chen

    (The Affiliated Lihuili Hospital of Ningbo University, Ningbo Institute of Innovation for Combined Medicine and Engineering (NIIME))

  • Xingyu Tao

    (Chongqing University, Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Chongqing Emergency Medical Center, Chongqing University Central Hospital, School of Medicine)

  • Zefeng Yu

    (Nanchang University, School of Information Engineering, Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Advanced Signal Processing and Intelligent Communications)

  • Linhui Shi

    (The Affiliated Lihuili Hospital of Ningbo University, Department of Intensive Care Medicine)

  • Jialian Wang

    (Chongqing University, Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Chongqing Emergency Medical Center, Chongqing University Central Hospital, School of Medicine)

  • Fan Zhang

    (Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Department of Gastroenterology)

  • Jiaying Shen

    (The Affiliated Lihuili Hospital of Ningbo University, Ningbo Institute of Innovation for Combined Medicine and Engineering (NIIME))

  • Fen Liu

    (Nanchang University, School of Medicine
    Nanchang University, Department of Critical Care Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University)

  • Chongke Hu

    (The Affiliated Lihuili Hospital of Ningbo University, Ningbo Institute of Innovation for Combined Medicine and Engineering (NIIME))

  • Yangguang Ren

    (Kunming Medical University, College of Life Science and Laboratory Medicine)

  • Tzu-Ming Liu

    (University of Macau, Institute of Translational Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences & Ministry of Education Frontiers Science Center for Precision Oncology)

  • Yang Luo

    (Chongqing University, Department of Laboratory Medicine, Chongqing Center for Clinical Laboratory, Chongqing Academy of Medical Sciences, Chongqing General Hospital, School of Medicine
    Kunming Medical University, College of Life Science and Laboratory Medicine
    Chongqing Key Laboratory of Highly Pathogenic Microbes)

  • Fei Guo

    (The Affiliated Lihuili Hospital of Ningbo University, Ningbo Institute of Innovation for Combined Medicine and Engineering (NIIME))

  • Bailin Niu

    (Chongqing University, Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Chongqing Emergency Medical Center, Chongqing University Central Hospital, School of Medicine
    The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Department of Emergency and Intensive Care Medicine
    Brigham and Women’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Department of Surgery)

Abstract

Sepsis is a leading cause of hospital mortality, and its significant heterogeneity complicates prognosis and stratification. To address this challenge, we developed an explainable artificial intelligence prognostic model (SepsisFormer, a transformer-based neural network) and an automated risk-stratification tool (SMART) for sepsis. In a multi-center retrospective study of 12,408 sepsis patients, SepsisFormer achieved high predictive accuracy (AUC: 0.9301, sensitivity: 0.9346, and specificity: 0.8312). SMART (AUC: 0.7360) surpassed most established scoring systems. Seven coagulation-inflammatory routine laboratory measurements and patient age were identified to classify patients’ four risk levels (mild, moderate, severe, dangerous) and two subphenotypes (CIS1 and CIS2), each with distinct clinical characteristics and mortality rates. Notably, patients with moderate/severe levels or CIS2 derive more significant benefits from anticoagulant treatment. Our work, therefore, offers a set of simple, real-time executable tools for sepsis heterogeneity, demonstrating the potential to enhance sepsis clinical practice globally, particularly in resource-constrained healthcare settings.

Suggested Citation

  • Li Zhu & Zengtian Chen & Hong Zhang & Hongjun Chen & Lanqi Liu & Wei Yu & Kai Wu & Yijin Chen & Xingyu Tao & Zefeng Yu & Linhui Shi & Jialian Wang & Fan Zhang & Jiaying Shen & Fen Liu & Chongke Hu & Y, 2025. "Explainable AI unravels sepsis heterogeneity via coagulation-inflammation profiles for prognosis and stratification," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-65365-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-65365-z
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