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Basic reproduction number varies markedly between closely related pandemic Escherichia coli clones

Author

Listed:
  • Fanni Ojala

    (Aalto University)

  • Henri Pesonen

    (Oslo University Hospital
    Tampere University)

  • Rebecca A. Gladstone

    (University of Oslo)

  • Tommi Mäklin

    (University of Helsinki)

  • Gerry Tonkin-Hill

    (University of Oslo
    Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre
    The University of Melbourne
    The University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity)

  • Pekka Marttinen

    (Aalto University)

  • Jukka Corander

    (University of Oslo
    University of Helsinki
    Wellcome Sanger Institute
    University of Cambridge)

Abstract

Extra-intestinal pathogenic Escherichia coli ubiquitously colonize the human gut and represent clinically the most significant bacterial species causing urinary tract infections and bacteremia. During the last two decades clades of the ST131 lineage have spread globally, but it remains unknown how their transmission dynamics compare to the basic reproduction numbers (R0) for viral pandemics. We develop a compartmental model for asymptomatic gut colonization and onward transmission coupled with an epidemiological observation model and fit it on the major ST131 clades. Our results indicate that the ST131-A transmission potential (R0 = 1.47) can be comparable to pandemic influenza viruses, while the significantly lower transmissibility of ST131-C1 (R0 = 1.18) and ST131-C2 (R0 = 1.13) suggests that their dissemination has been aided by antibiotic selection pressure and healthcare facilities. Our results provide an advance in understanding the relative transmissibility of these opportunistic pathogens.

Suggested Citation

  • Fanni Ojala & Henri Pesonen & Rebecca A. Gladstone & Tommi Mäklin & Gerry Tonkin-Hill & Pekka Marttinen & Jukka Corander, 2025. "Basic reproduction number varies markedly between closely related pandemic Escherichia coli clones," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-65301-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-65301-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sergio Arredondo-Alonso & Anna K. Pöntinen & João A. Gama & Rebecca A. Gladstone & Klaus Harms & Gerry Tonkin-Hill & Harry A. Thorpe & Gunnar S. Simonsen & Ørjan Samuelsen & Pål J. Johnsen & Jukka Cor, 2025. "Plasmid-driven strategies for clone success in Escherichia coli," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, December.
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