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A simulation study of the impact of population-wide lifestyle modifications on life expectancy in the Chinese population

Author

Listed:
  • Qiufen Sun

    (Peking University
    Nanjing Medical University)

  • Liyun Zhao

    (Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Yuxiang Yang

    (Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Yinqi Ding

    (Peking University)

  • Canqing Yu

    (Peking University
    Peking University Center for Public Health and Epidemic Preparedness & Response
    Ministry of Education)

  • Dianjianyi Sun

    (Peking University
    Peking University Center for Public Health and Epidemic Preparedness & Response
    Ministry of Education)

  • Yuanjie Pang

    (Peking University
    Peking University Center for Public Health and Epidemic Preparedness & Response
    Ministry of Education)

  • Pei Pei

    (Peking University Center for Public Health and Epidemic Preparedness & Response)

  • Ling Yang

    (University of Oxford)

  • Yiping Chen

    (University of Oxford)

  • Huaidong Du

    (University of Oxford)

  • Ranran Du

    (Qingdao Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Maxim Barnard

    (University of Oxford)

  • Junshi Chen

    (China National Center for Food Safety Risk Assessment)

  • Zhengming Chen

    (University of Oxford)

  • Dongmei Yu

    (Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Liming Li

    (Peking University
    Peking University Center for Public Health and Epidemic Preparedness & Response
    Ministry of Education)

  • Jun Lv

    (Peking University
    Peking University Center for Public Health and Epidemic Preparedness & Response
    Ministry of Education
    Peking University)

Abstract

It is uncertain how much life expectancy of the Chinese population would improve under current and greater policy targets on lifestyle-based risk factors for chronic diseases and mortality. Here we report a simulation of how improvements in four risk factors, namely smoking, alcohol use, physical activity and diet, could affect mortality. We show that in the ideal scenario, that is, all people who currently smoke quit smoking, excessive alcohol use was reduced to moderate intake, people under 65 increased moderate physical activity by one hour and those aged 65 and older increased by half an hour per day, and all participants ate 200 g more fresh fruits and 50 g more fish/seafood per day, life expectancy at age 30 would increase by 4.83 and 5.39 years for men and women, respectively. In a more moderate risk reduction scenario referred to as the practical scenario, where improvements in each lifestyle factor were approximately halved, the gains in life expectancy at age 30 could be half those of the ideal scenario. However, the possibility to realize these estimates in practise may be influenced by population-wide adherence to lifestyle recommendations.

Suggested Citation

  • Qiufen Sun & Liyun Zhao & Yuxiang Yang & Yinqi Ding & Canqing Yu & Dianjianyi Sun & Yuanjie Pang & Pei Pei & Ling Yang & Yiping Chen & Huaidong Du & Ranran Du & Maxim Barnard & Junshi Chen & Zhengming, 2025. "A simulation study of the impact of population-wide lifestyle modifications on life expectancy in the Chinese population," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-64824-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-64824-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tsai-Chung Li & Chia-Ing Li & Chiu-Shong Liu & Wen-Yuan Lin & Chih-Hsueh Lin & Shing-Yu Yang & Cheng-Chieh Lin, 2020. "Derivation and validation of 10-year all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality prediction model for middle-aged and elderly community-dwelling adults in Taiwan," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(9), pages 1-14, September.
    2. Stephen F Weng & Luis Vaz & Nadeem Qureshi & Joe Kai, 2019. "Prediction of premature all-cause mortality: A prospective general population cohort study comparing machine-learning and standard epidemiological approaches," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(3), pages 1-22, March.
    3. Choonghyun Ahn & Yunji Hwang & Sue K Park, 2017. "Predictors of all-cause mortality among 514,866 participants from the Korean National Health Screening Cohort," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(9), pages 1-14, September.
    4. repec:plo:pmed00:1002082 is not listed on IDEAS
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