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Opportunities for decentralised solar power to improve reliability, reduce emissions and avoid stranded assets

Author

Listed:
  • Philip Sandwell

    (Imperial College London
    Imperial College London)

  • Benedict Winchester

    (Imperial College London
    Imperial College London
    Imperial College London)

  • Shivika Mittal

    (Imperial College London
    CICERO Center for International Climate Research)

  • Christos N. Markides

    (Imperial College London)

  • Hamish Beath

    (Imperial College London
    Imperial College London
    Imperial College London)

  • Jenny Nelson

    (Imperial College London
    Imperial College London)

Abstract

Despite recent improvements to electricity access in lower-income countries, reliability remains low for many. Local renewable electricity infrastructure supplementing the national grid offers a promising route to improved reliability for rural communities. However, improvements in the reliability of national grids create risks for investors including the possibility of “stranded” renewable assets. We use energy-system modelling to explore ways in which solar photovoltaic (PV)-based mini-grids could be interconnected with national grids. We explore the impact of reduced electricity demand to quantify the investment risks of losing customers. Our results indicate that national grid–connected mini-grids can reduce the unit electricity costs for communities whilst also increasing reliability and reducing the carbon intensity of electricity in line with Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7. Reductions in demand have a minimal impact at lower levels but at moderate levels are likely to undermine economic viability. Finally, we discuss policy interventions to facilitate and protect investing in national grid-connected mini-grids.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip Sandwell & Benedict Winchester & Shivika Mittal & Christos N. Markides & Hamish Beath & Jenny Nelson, 2025. "Opportunities for decentralised solar power to improve reliability, reduce emissions and avoid stranded assets," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-14, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-62948-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-62948-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sachiko Graber & Tara Narayanan & Jose F. Alfaro & Debajit Palit, 2019. "Perceptions towards solar mini‐grid systems in India: A multi‐stakeholder analysis," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(4), pages 253-266, November.
    2. Bhattacharyya, Subhes C., 2013. "To regulate or not to regulate off-grid electricity access in developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 494-503.
    3. Gregor Semieniuk & Philip B. Holden & Jean-Francois Mercure & Pablo Salas & Hector Pollitt & Katharine Jobson & Pim Vercoulen & Unnada Chewpreecha & Neil R. Edwards & Jorge E. Viñuales, 2022. "Stranded fossil-fuel assets translate to major losses for investors in advanced economies," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(6), pages 532-538, June.
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