IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v16y2025i1d10.1038_s41467-025-62679-w.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Correcting market failure for no-regret electric road investments under uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Jakob Rogstadius

    (RISE Research Institutes of Sweden AB)

  • Hampus Alfredsson

    (RISE Research Institutes of Sweden AB)

  • Henrik Sällberg

    (Blekinge Institute of Technology)

  • Karl-Filip Faxén

    (RISE Research Institutes of Sweden AB)

Abstract

Several electric road system technologies that enable in-motion charging of electric vehicles are nearing market readiness. However, substantial contribution to decarbonization requires rapid deployment on an international scale. Investment is discouraged by prior research that has identified that declining battery costs may eventually leave the infrastructure a stranded asset. We explore under what circumstances electric roads offer effective and low-risk decarbonization of European heavy-duty road freight. Transport system dynamics are explored and quantified, through pairwise comparison of scenarios with and without electric road incorporation, using a purpose-built agent-based simulation (MOSTACHI). Prior stranded asset risks are confirmed, but we show that policy that encourages high electric road utilization can correct for market failures and make the infrastructure a no-regret investment in much of Europe – never yielding worse outcomes than not investing. Electric roads are shown to be an effective risk mitigation strategy, achieving market-driven phase-out of fossil fuels before 2050, also in pessimistic scenarios where static charging alone would be insufficient. Electric roads reduce levelized system cost by 0–17%, greenhouse gas emissions by 7–63% (2030 to 2050, cumulative) and battery mineral demand by 20–40%. Benefits are maximized with early and predictable deployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakob Rogstadius & Hampus Alfredsson & Henrik Sällberg & Karl-Filip Faxén, 2025. "Correcting market failure for no-regret electric road investments under uncertainty," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-19, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-62679-w
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-62679-w
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-62679-w
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-025-62679-w?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:plo:pone00:0231866 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Offer, G.J. & Howey, D. & Contestabile, M. & Clague, R. & Brandon, N.P., 2010. "Comparative analysis of battery electric, hydrogen fuel cell and hybrid vehicles in a future sustainable road transport system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 24-29, January.
    3. Hanhee Kim & Niklas Hartmann & Maxime Zeller & Renato Luise & Tamer Soylu, 2021. "Comparative TCO Analysis of Battery Electric and Hydrogen Fuel Cell Buses for Public Transport System in Small to Midsize Cities," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-31, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ali Saadon Al-Ogaili & Ali Q. Al-Shetwi & Thanikanti Sudhakar Babu & Yap Hoon & Majid A. Abdullah & Ameer Alhasan & Ammar Al-Sharaa, 2021. "Electric Buses in Malaysia: Policies, Innovations, Technologies and Life Cycle Evaluations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-22, October.
    2. McCluskey, Jac & Druitt, Tom & Larkin, Charles, 2025. "Sustainability in transit: Assessing the economic case for electric bus adoption in the UK," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 493-508.
    3. Das, Himadry Shekhar & Tan, Chee Wei & Yatim, A.H.M., 2017. "Fuel cell hybrid electric vehicles: A review on power conditioning units and topologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 268-291.
    4. Behiri, Walid & Belmokhtar-Berraf, Sana & Chu, Chengbin, 2018. "Urban freight transport using passenger rail network: Scientific issues and quantitative analysis," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 227-245.
    5. Togun, Hussein & Basem, Ali & Abdulrazzaq, Tuqa & Biswas, Nirmalendu & Abed, Azher M. & dhabab, Jameel M. & Chattopadhyay, Anirban & Slimi, Khalifa & Paul, Dipankar & Barmavatu, Praveen & Chrouda, Ama, 2025. "Development and comparative analysis between battery electric vehicles (BEV) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV)," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 388(C).
    6. Mediavilla, Margarita & de Castro, Carlos & Capellán, Iñigo & Javier Miguel, Luis & Arto, Iñaki & Frechoso, Fernando, 2013. "The transition towards renewable energies: Physical limits and temporal conditions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 297-311.
    7. Khadija Al-Omran & Naser Naser & Zahra Alomran & Husain Alawi & Hacene Manaa, 2025. "Shifting Towards Sustainable Mobility: Challenging the Predominance of the Private Car Regime," Systemic Practice and Action Research, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 1-16, September.
    8. Iván López & Pedro Luis Calvo & Gonzalo Fernández-Sánchez & Carlos Sierra & Roberto Corchero & Cesar Omar Chacón & Carlos de Juan & Daniel Rosas & Francisco Burgos, 2022. "Different Approaches for a Goal: The Electrical Bus-EMT Madrid as a Successful Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-24, August.
    9. Orsi, Francesco & Muratori, Matteo & Rocco, Matteo & Colombo, Emanuela & Rizzoni, Giorgio, 2016. "A multi-dimensional well-to-wheels analysis of passenger vehicles in different regions: Primary energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and economic cost," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 197-209.
    10. Xie, Shaobo & Lang, Kun & Qi, Shanwei, 2020. "Aerodynamic-aware coordinated control of following speed and power distribution for hybrid electric trucks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    11. Kinga Stecuła & Piotr Olczak & Paweł Kamiński & Dominika Matuszewska & Hai Duong Duc, 2022. "Towards Sustainable Transport: Techno-Economic Analysis of Investing in Hydrogen Buses in Public Transport in the Selected City of Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-14, December.
    12. Morton, Craig & Anable, Jillian & Yeboah, Godwin & Cottrill, Caitlin, 2018. "The spatial pattern of demand in the early market for electric vehicles: Evidence from the United Kingdom," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 119-130.
    13. Samuel Pelletier & Ola Jabali & Gilbert Laporte, 2016. "50th Anniversary Invited Article—Goods Distribution with Electric Vehicles: Review and Research Perspectives," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(1), pages 3-22, February.
    14. Roberto Capata, 2018. "Urban and Extra-Urban Hybrid Vehicles: A Technological Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-38, October.
    15. Aiman Albatayneh & Adel Juaidi & Mustafa Jaradat & Francisco Manzano-Agugliaro, 2023. "Future of Electric and Hydrogen Cars and Trucks: An Overview," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-16, April.
    16. Li, Xiangyi & Castellanos, Sebastian & Maassen, Anne, 2018. "Emerging trends and innovations for electric bus adoption—a comparative case study of contracting and financing of 22 cities in the Americas, Asia-Pacific, and Europe," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 470-481.
    17. Offer, G.J. & Contestabile, M. & Howey, D.A. & Clague, R. & Brandon, N.P., 2011. "Techno-economic and behavioural analysis of battery electric, hydrogen fuel cell and hybrid vehicles in a future sustainable road transport system in the UK," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1939-1950, April.
    18. Sistig, Hubert Maximilian & Sauer, Dirk Uwe, 2023. "Metaheuristic for the integrated electric vehicle and crew scheduling problem," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 339(C).
    19. Geerten Van de Kaa & Daniel Scholten & Jafar Rezaei & Christine Milchram, 2017. "The Battle between Battery and Fuel Cell Powered Electric Vehicles: A BWM Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-13, October.
    20. Shafiei, Ehsan & Davidsdottir, Brynhildur & Leaver, Jonathan & Stefansson, Hlynur & Asgeirsson, Eyjolfur Ingi, 2015. "Comparative analysis of hydrogen, biofuels and electricity transitional pathways to sustainable transport in a renewable-based energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 614-627.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-62679-w. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.