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Modeling interconnected minerals markets with multicommodity supply curves: examining the copper-cobalt-nickel system

Author

Listed:
  • John Ryter

    (National Minerals Information Center)

  • Karan Bhuwalka

    (Precourt Institute for Energy)

  • Richard Roth

    (Materials Systems Laboratory)

  • Elsa Olivetti

    (Department of Materials Science and Engineering)

  • Laura Buarque-Andrade

    (Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf)

  • Max Frenzel

    (Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf)

  • Ensieh Shojaeddini

    (National Minerals Information Center
    Contractor to the U.S. Geological Survey)

  • Elisa Alonso

    (National Minerals Information Center)

  • Nedal Nassar

    (National Minerals Information Center)

Abstract

Demand for many of the metals used in the energy transition is expected to grow rapidly. Many of these are by-products, often considered critical because their production responds weakly to prices and is instead tied to the economics of the host mineral. We present a model of prices and production for jointly produced commodities that accounts for interconnectivity between host and by-product markets at the mine level. We demonstrate this method using the copper–cobalt–nickel system, in which approximately 99% of cobalt is a by-product of copper or nickel mining. Our results show that the model more accurately captures the economic benefits of diversified mine outputs than previous approaches. Furthermore, changes in demand drivers for any two commodities produce non-linear effects on production and price. We challenge the prior best-practice assumption that cobalt cannot impact the copper or nickel markets. Recognizing the importance of both copper and cobalt for future electrification, we emphasize that incentivizing the copper industry to reduce cobalt supply risks could inadvertently undermine copper supply.

Suggested Citation

  • John Ryter & Karan Bhuwalka & Richard Roth & Elsa Olivetti & Laura Buarque-Andrade & Max Frenzel & Ensieh Shojaeddini & Elisa Alonso & Nedal Nassar, 2025. "Modeling interconnected minerals markets with multicommodity supply curves: examining the copper-cobalt-nickel system," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-62570-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-62570-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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