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Risk assessment and perspectives of local transmission of chikungunya and dengue in Italy, a European forerunner

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco Menegale

    (Fondazione Bruno Kessler)

  • Mattia Manica

    (Fondazione Bruno Kessler)

  • Martina Manso

    (Istituto Superiore di Sanità)

  • Antonino Bella

    (Istituto Superiore di Sanità)

  • Agnese Zardini

    (Fondazione Bruno Kessler)

  • Andrea Gobbi

    (Fondazione Bruno Kessler)

  • Anna Domenica Mignuoli

    (Calabria Region)

  • Giovanna Mattei

    (Emilia-Romagna Region)

  • Francesco Vairo

    (National Institute for Infectious Diseases “Lazzaro Spallanzani” IRCCS)

  • Luigi Vezzosi

    (Regione Lombardia)

  • Francesca Russo

    (Veterinaria - Regione del Veneto)

  • Federica Ferraro

    (Italian Ministry of Health)

  • Francesco Maraglino

    (Italian Ministry of Health)

  • Anna Teresa Palamara

    (Istituto Superiore di Sanità)

  • Piero Poletti

    (Fondazione Bruno Kessler)

  • Patrizio Pezzotti

    (Istituto Superiore di Sanità)

  • Stefano Merler

    (Fondazione Bruno Kessler)

  • Flavia Riccardo

    (Istituto Superiore di Sanità)

Abstract

To address the growing frequency, extension, and size of local arboviral outbreaks in Europe we retrospectively analyzed dengue and chikungunya transmission in Italy from 2006 to 2023. We applied generalized additive models to the records of travel-related cases to highlight the spatiotemporal patterns of disease importation, calculated reproduction numbers for six local outbreaks based on autochthonous case data and mapped current transmission risks by applying a computational model that integrates human density, entomological, and climate data. Outbreak locations appear driven by case importation, which is notably higher for dengue – especially from June to October - rather than local transmission risks. Although reporting delays and favorable temperatures allowed onward transmission for several generations from mid-August to mid-November, upon outbreak detection control of transmission was achieved within 15 days. In high-risk areas, significantly longer epidemic risks were found for chikungunya (over 4 months). However, considering observed importation trends, increasingly frequent local dengue outbreaks are expected. Case detection should be prioritized focusing on areas, and in times, where environmental and climate conditions are permissive, regardless of prior outbreaks.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Menegale & Mattia Manica & Martina Manso & Antonino Bella & Agnese Zardini & Andrea Gobbi & Anna Domenica Mignuoli & Giovanna Mattei & Francesco Vairo & Luigi Vezzosi & Francesca Russo & Fed, 2025. "Risk assessment and perspectives of local transmission of chikungunya and dengue in Italy, a European forerunner," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-61109-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-61109-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giorgio Guzzetta & Cecilia A. Marques-Toledo & Roberto Rosà & Mauro Teixeira & Stefano Merler, 2018. "Quantifying the spatial spread of dengue in a non-endemic Brazilian metropolis via transmission chain reconstruction," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-8, December.
    2. Dominic P. Brass & Christina A. Cobbold & Bethan V. Purse & David A. Ewing & Amanda Callaghan & Steven M. White, 2024. "Role of vector phenotypic plasticity in disease transmission as illustrated by the spread of dengue virus by Aedes albopictus," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-22, December.
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