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Rising military spending jeopardizes climate targets

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  • Wenjie Dong

    (School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System Ministry of Education, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory)

  • Qi Ran

    (School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System Ministry of Education, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory)

  • Fei Liu

    (School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System Ministry of Education, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory)

  • Rong Deng

    (School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System Ministry of Education, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory)

  • Jie Yang

    (School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System Ministry of Education, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory)

  • Kaixi Wang

    (School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System Ministry of Education, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory)

  • Xinyue Wang

    (School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System Ministry of Education, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory)

  • Duofan Zheng

    (School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System Ministry of Education, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory)

  • Chenhao Li

    (School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System Ministry of Education, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory)

  • Wenjun Liang

    (School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System Ministry of Education, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory)

  • Jieming Chou

    (Beijing Normal University)

  • Wenping Yuan

    (Peking University)

  • Deliang Chen

    (Tsinghua University)

Abstract

The IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report highlights the reliance on sustainable socio-economic pathways to meet the 1.5 °C or 2 °C targets. However, these scenarios lack a quantitative assessment of the impact of global military spending on CO2 emissions. Our study shows that events such as the 2001–2011 war on terrorism and the 2022 Russian-Ukrainian war led to an increase in CO2 emission intensity of 0.04 (95% CI: 0.03–0.05) kg/USD for every 1% escalation in global military expenditure as a percentage of GDP (MILEX ratio). This increase accounts for 27% of the total change in CO2 emission intensity between 1995 and 2023. In scenarios where the global MILEX ratio exceeds thresholds of 12% (for SSP1-1.9) or 24% (for SSP1-2.6), the 1.5 °C or 2 °C climate goals would become unattainable by the end of the century, highlighting the urgent need for a more peaceful international environment to effectively limit global warming.

Suggested Citation

  • Wenjie Dong & Qi Ran & Fei Liu & Rong Deng & Jie Yang & Kaixi Wang & Xinyue Wang & Duofan Zheng & Chenhao Li & Wenjun Liang & Jieming Chou & Wenping Yuan & Deliang Chen, 2025. "Rising military spending jeopardizes climate targets," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-59877-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-59877-x
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