IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v16y2025i1d10.1038_s41467-025-58694-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Daily rainfall variability controls humid heatwaves in the global tropics and subtropics

Author

Listed:
  • Lawrence S. Jackson

    (University of Leeds)

  • Cathryn E. Birch

    (University of Leeds)

  • Guillaume Chagnaud

    (UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology)

  • John H. Marsham

    (University of Leeds)

  • Christopher M. Taylor

    (UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
    National Centre for Earth Observation)

Abstract

Humid heatwaves are a growing risk to human and animal health, especially in tropical regions. While there is established research on dry-bulb temperature heatwaves, greater understanding of the meteorological drivers of extreme humid heat is urgently needed. In this study, we find that recent rainfall is a key control on the occurrence of humid heatwaves in the tropics and subtropics and its effect is regulated by the energy- or moisture-limited state of the land surface. In moisture-limited environments, heatwaves are likely during, or immediately after, enhanced rainfall. In energy-limited environments, heatwaves are likely after suppression of rainfall for two days or longer. The nature of the threat to health from heat stress varies by environment. It depends on local adaptation to temperature or humidity extremes, as well as vulnerability to absolute or anomalous extremes. Early warning systems, which reduce exposure and vulnerability to weather extremes, can benefit from this understanding of humid heatwave drivers, highlighting the possibility of predicting events using satellite-derived rainfall and surface moisture data.

Suggested Citation

  • Lawrence S. Jackson & Cathryn E. Birch & Guillaume Chagnaud & John H. Marsham & Christopher M. Taylor, 2025. "Daily rainfall variability controls humid heatwaves in the global tropics and subtropics," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-58694-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-58694-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-58694-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-025-58694-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jennifer Vanos & Gisel Guzman-Echavarria & Jane W. Baldwin & Coen Bongers & Kristie L. Ebi & Ollie Jay, 2023. "A physiological approach for assessing human survivability and liveability to heat in a changing climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Doran, Elizabeth M.B. & Reichard, Will & Boothe, Morgan & Donnell, Grace & Fan, Huiying & Rowangould, Gregory & Guensler, Randall, 2025. "Mitigating Extreme Heat Exposure Using Advanced and Novel Materials and Improved Pedestrian Infrastructure Design: A Systematic Literature Review and Survey of Agencies," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt9x00066h, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    2. Robert D. Meade & Ashley P. Akerman & Sean R. Notley & Gregory W. McGarr & Emma R. McCourt & Nathalie V. Kirby & Joseph T. Costello & James D. Cotter & Craig G. Crandall & Antonella Zanobetti & Glen P, 2025. "Meta-analysis of heat-induced changes in cardiac function from over 400 laboratory-based heat exposure studies," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-26, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-58694-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.