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Model-based evaluation of the impact of a potential HIV cure on HIV transmission dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Alfredo De Bellis

    (University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University
    Bruno Kessler Foundation
    University of Trento)

  • Myrthe S. Willemsen

    (University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University)

  • Giorgio Guzzetta

    (Bruno Kessler Foundation)

  • Ard Sighem

    (Stichting HIV Monitoring)

  • Kim A. G. J. Romijnders

    (University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University)

  • Peter Reiss

    (Amsterdam Institute for Global Health and Development
    Global Health and Quality of Care
    Infectious Diseases Program)

  • Maarten F. Schim van der Loeff

    (Global Health and Quality of Care
    Infectious Diseases Program
    Public Health Service of Amsterdam)

  • Janneke H. H. M. Wijgert

    (University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University)

  • Monique Nijhuis

    (University Medical Center Utrecht
    University of Witwatersrand)

  • Mirjam E. E. Kretzschmar

    (University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University
    Utrecht University
    University of Münster)

  • Ganna Rozhnova

    (University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University
    Utrecht University
    Faculty of Sciences, University of Lisbon
    University of Lisbon)

Abstract

The development of an HIV cure is a global health priority, with the target product profile (TPP) for an HIV cure guiding research efforts. Using a mathematical model calibrated to data from men who have sex with men (MSM) in the Netherlands, we assessed whether an effective cure could help end the HIV epidemic. Following the TPP, we evaluated two scenarios: (i) HIV remission, where the virus is suppressed in an individual without ongoing antiretroviral therapy (ART) but may rebound, and (ii) HIV eradication, which aims to completely remove the virus from the individual. Here, we show that sustained HIV remission (without rebound) or HIV eradication could reduce new HIV infections compared to a scenario without a cure. In contrast, transient HIV remission with a risk of rebound could increase new infections if rebounds are not closely monitored, potentially undermining HIV control efforts. Our findings emphasize the critical role of cure characteristics in maximizing cure benefits for public health and highlight the need to align HIV cure research with public health objectives to end the HIV epidemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfredo De Bellis & Myrthe S. Willemsen & Giorgio Guzzetta & Ard Sighem & Kim A. G. J. Romijnders & Peter Reiss & Maarten F. Schim van der Loeff & Janneke H. H. M. Wijgert & Monique Nijhuis & Mirjam E, 2025. "Model-based evaluation of the impact of a potential HIV cure on HIV transmission dynamics," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-14, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-58657-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-58657-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thumbi Ndung’u & Joseph M. McCune & Steven G. Deeks, 2019. "Why and where an HIV cure is needed and how it might be achieved," Nature, Nature, vol. 576(7787), pages 397-405, December.
    2. Ganna Rozhnova & Maarten F Schim van der Loeff & Janneke C M Heijne & Mirjam E Kretzschmar, 2016. "Impact of Heterogeneity in Sexual Behavior on Effectiveness in Reducing HIV Transmission with Test-and-Treat Strategy," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(8), pages 1-20, August.
    3. Rebecca Giddings & Pitchaya Indravudh & Graham F. Medley & Fiammetta Bozzani & Mitzy Gafos & Shelly Malhotra & Fern Terris-Prestholt & Sergio Torres-Rueda & Matthew Quaife, 2023. "Infectious Disease Modelling of HIV Prevention Interventions: A Systematic Review and Narrative Synthesis of Compartmental Models," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 41(6), pages 693-707, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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