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High resolution global spatiotemporal assessment of rooftop solar photovoltaics potential for renewable electricity generation

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  • Siddharth Joshi

    (SFI MaREI Centre for Energy Climate and Marine
    Environmental Research Institute, University College Cork
    School of Engineering, University College Cork)

  • Shivika Mittal

    (Grantham Institute–Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London)

  • Paul Holloway

    (Environmental Research Institute, University College Cork
    University College Cork)

  • Priyadarshi Ramprasad Shukla

    (Global Centre for Environment and Energy, Ahmedabad University)

  • Brian Ó Gallachóir

    (SFI MaREI Centre for Energy Climate and Marine
    Environmental Research Institute, University College Cork
    School of Engineering, University College Cork)

  • James Glynn

    (SFI MaREI Centre for Energy Climate and Marine
    Environmental Research Institute, University College Cork
    School of Engineering, University College Cork
    Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University)

Abstract

Rooftop solar photovoltaics currently account for 40% of the global solar photovoltaics installed capacity and one-fourth of the total renewable capacity additions in 2018. Yet, only limited information is available on its global potential and associated costs at a high spatiotemporal resolution. Here, we present a high-resolution global assessment of rooftop solar photovoltaics potential using big data, machine learning and geospatial analysis. We analyse 130 million km2 of global land surface area to demarcate 0.2 million km2 of rooftop area, which together represent 27 PWh yr−1 of electricity generation potential for costs between 40–280 $ MWh−1. Out of this, 10 PWh yr−1 can be realised below 100 $ MWh−1. The global potential is predominantly spread between Asia (47%), North America (20%) and Europe (13%). The cost of attaining the potential is lowest in India (66 $ MWh−1) and China (68 $ MWh−1), with USA (238 $ MWh−1) and UK (251 $ MWh−1) representing some of the costliest countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Siddharth Joshi & Shivika Mittal & Paul Holloway & Priyadarshi Ramprasad Shukla & Brian Ó Gallachóir & James Glynn, 2021. "High resolution global spatiotemporal assessment of rooftop solar photovoltaics potential for renewable electricity generation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-15, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-25720-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-25720-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Li, Weilong & Han, Mengyao, 2023. "Mapping renewable energy transition worldwide: Gravity trajectory, contribution decomposition and income levels," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 1265-1274.
    2. Ding, Feng & Yang, Jianping & Zhou, Zan, 2023. "Economic profits and carbon reduction potential of photovoltaic power generation for China's high-speed railway infrastructure," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    3. Alharbi, Abdulaziz & Awwad, Zeyad & Habib, Abdulelah & de Weck, Olivier, 2023. "Economical sizing and multi-azimuth layout optimization of grid-connected rooftop photovoltaic systems using Mixed-Integer Programming," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 335(C).
    4. Lu, Ning & Li, Liang & Qin, Jun, 2024. "PV Identifier: Extraction of small-scale distributed photovoltaics in complex environments from high spatial resolution remote sensing images," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 365(C).
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    6. Femke J. M. M. Nijsse & Jean-Francois Mercure & Nadia Ameli & Francesca Larosa & Sumit Kothari & Jamie Rickman & Pim Vercoulen & Hector Pollitt, 2023. "The momentum of the solar energy transition," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    7. Liu, Junling & Li, Mengyue & Xue, Liya & Kobashi, Takuro, 2022. "A framework to evaluate the energy-environment-economic impacts of developing rooftop photovoltaics integrated with electric vehicles at city level," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 647-657.
    8. Cuenca, Juan J. & Daly, Hannah E. & Hayes, Barry P., 2023. "Sharing the grid: The key to equitable access for small-scale energy generation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 349(C).
    9. Mao, Hongzhi & Chen, Xie & Luo, Yongqiang & Deng, Jie & Tian, Zhiyong & Yu, Jinghua & Xiao, Yimin & Fan, Jianhua, 2023. "Advances and prospects on estimating solar photovoltaic installation capacity and potential based on satellite and aerial images," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    10. Jiang, Hou & Yao, Ling & Lu, Ning & Qin, Jun & Zhang, Xiaotong & Liu, Tang & Zhang, Xingxing & Zhou, Chenghu, 2024. "Exploring the optimization of rooftop photovoltaic scale and spatial layout under curtailment constraints," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    11. Jiang, Hou & Zhang, Xiaotong & Yao, Ling & Lu, Ning & Qin, Jun & Liu, Tang & Zhou, Chenghu, 2023. "High-resolution analysis of rooftop photovoltaic potential based on hourly generation simulations and load profiles," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 348(C).
    12. Guo, Zhiling & Zhuang, Zhan & Tan, Hongjun & Liu, Zhengguang & Li, Peiran & Lin, Zhengyuan & Shang, Wen-Long & Zhang, Haoran & Yan, Jinyue, 2023. "Accurate and generalizable photovoltaic panel segmentation using deep learning for imbalanced datasets," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(P1).
    13. Lukač, Niko & Mongus, Domen & Žalik, Borut & Štumberger, Gorazd & Bizjak, Marko, 2024. "Novel GPU-accelerated high-resolution solar potential estimation in urban areas by using a modified diffuse irradiance model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PA).
    14. Carla Cristiane Sokulski & Murillo Vetroni Barros & Rodrigo Salvador & Evandro Eduardo Broday & Antonio Carlos de Francisco, 2022. "Trends in Renewable Electricity Generation in the G20 Countries: An Analysis of the 1990–2020 Period," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-21, February.
    15. Castle, Jennifer L. & Hendry, David F., 2024. "Five sensitive intervention points to achieve climate neutrality by 2050, illustrated by the UK," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    16. Hu, Wei & Bradbury, Kyle & Malof, Jordan M. & Li, Boning & Huang, Bohao & Streltsov, Artem & Sydny Fujita, K. & Hoen, Ben, 2022. "What you get is not always what you see—pitfalls in solar array assessment using overhead imagery," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 327(C).
    17. Jiang, Hou & Lu, Ning & Yao, Ling & Qin, Jun & Liu, Tang, 2023. "Impact of climate changes on the stability of solar energy: Evidence from observations and reanalysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 726-736.
    18. Chen, Xie & Zhou, Chaohui & Tian, Zhiyong & Mao, Hongzhi & Luo, Yongqiang & Sun, Deyu & Fan, Jianhua & Jiang, Liguang & Deng, Jie & Rosen, Marc A., 2023. "Different photovoltaic power potential variations in East and West China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 351(C).
    19. Keiner, Dominik & Thoma, Christian & Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Breyer, Christian, 2023. "Seasonal hydrogen storage for residential on- and off-grid solar photovoltaics prosumer applications: Revolutionary solution or niche market for the energy transition until 2050?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 340(C).
    20. Ishan Purohit & Ashish Kumar Sharma & Pallav Purohit, 2024. "Leveraging information technology for accelerating residential rooftop solar: A case study from Odisha, India," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 29(5), pages 1-26, June.
    21. Molnár, Gergely & Cabeza, Luisa F. & Chatterjee, Souran & Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana, 2024. "Modelling the building-related photovoltaic power production potential in the light of the EU's Solar Rooftop Initiative," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 360(C).
    22. Jianxiao Wang & Liudong Chen & Zhenfei Tan & Ershun Du & Nian Liu & Jing Ma & Mingyang Sun & Canbing Li & Jie Song & Xi Lu & Chin-Woo Tan & Guannan He, 2023. "Inherent spatiotemporal uncertainty of renewable power in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.

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