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High COVID-19 transmission potential associated with re-opening universities can be mitigated with layered interventions

Author

Listed:
  • Ellen Brooks-Pollock

    (University of Bristol, Langford
    University of Bristol)

  • Hannah Christensen

    (University of Bristol)

  • Adam Trickey

    (University of Bristol)

  • Gibran Hemani

    (University of Bristol)

  • Emily Nixon

    (University of Bristol, Bristol)

  • Amy C. Thomas

    (University of Bristol, Langford)

  • Katy Turner

    (University of Bristol, Langford
    University of Bristol)

  • Adam Finn

    (University of Bristol, Bristol)

  • Matt Hickman

    (University of Bristol)

  • Caroline Relton

    (University of Bristol)

  • Leon Danon

    (University of Bristol, Bristol)

Abstract

Controlling COVID-19 transmission in universities poses challenges due to the complex social networks and potential for asymptomatic spread. We developed a stochastic transmission model based on realistic mixing patterns and evaluated alternative mitigation strategies. We predict, for plausible model parameters, that if asymptomatic cases are half as infectious as symptomatic cases, then 15% (98% Prediction Interval: 6–35%) of students could be infected during the first term without additional control measures. First year students are the main drivers of transmission with the highest infection rates, largely due to communal residences. In isolation, reducing face-to-face teaching is the most effective intervention considered, however layering multiple interventions could reduce infection rates by 75%. Fortnightly or more frequent mass testing is required to impact transmission and was not the most effective option considered. Our findings suggest that additional outbreak control measures should be considered for university settings.

Suggested Citation

  • Ellen Brooks-Pollock & Hannah Christensen & Adam Trickey & Gibran Hemani & Emily Nixon & Amy C. Thomas & Katy Turner & Adam Finn & Matt Hickman & Caroline Relton & Leon Danon, 2021. "High COVID-19 transmission potential associated with re-opening universities can be mitigated with layered interventions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-25169-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-25169-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Krista M. Milich & Natalie Fisher & Gisela Sobral, 2024. "Effective public health messaging for university students: lessons learned to increase adherence to safety guidelines during a pandemic," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Margaret L. Lind & Murilo Dorion & Amy J. Houde & Mary Lansing & Sarah Lapidus & Russell Thomas & Inci Yildirim & Saad B. Omer & Wade L. Schulz & Jason R. Andrews & Matt D. T. Hitchings & Byron S. Ken, 2023. "Evidence of leaky protection following COVID-19 vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 infection in an incarcerated population," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.

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