IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v12y2021i1d10.1038_s41467-021-21788-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Interactions between timing and transmissibility explain diverse flavivirus dynamics in Fiji

Author

Listed:
  • Alasdair D. Henderson

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)

  • Mike Kama

    (Fiji Center for Diseases Control)

  • Maite Aubry

    (Institut Louis Malardé)

  • Stephane Hue

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)

  • Anita Teissier

    (Institut Louis Malardé)

  • Taina Naivalu

    (Fiji National University)

  • Vinaisi D. Bechu

    (Fiji Center for Diseases Control)

  • Jimaima Kailawadoko

    (Fiji Center for Diseases Control)

  • Isireli Rabukawaqa

    (Fiji Center for Diseases Control)

  • Aalisha Sahukhan

    (Fiji Center for Diseases Control)

  • Martin L. Hibberd

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)

  • Eric J. Nilles

    (Harvard Humanitarian Initiative)

  • Sebastian Funk

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)

  • Jimmy Whitworth

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)

  • Conall H. Watson

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
    Epidemic Diseases Research Group Oxford, University of Oxford)

  • Colleen L. Lau

    (Research School of Population Health, The Australian National University)

  • W. John Edmunds

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)

  • Van-Mai Cao-Lormeau

    (Institut Louis Malardé)

  • Adam J. Kucharski

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)

Abstract

Zika virus (ZIKV) has caused large, brief outbreaks in isolated populations, however ZIKV can also persist at low levels over multiple years. The reasons for these diverse transmission dynamics remain poorly understood. In Fiji, which has experienced multiple large single-season dengue epidemics, there was evidence of multi-year transmission of ZIKV between 2013 and 2017. To identify factors that could explain these differences in dynamics between closely related mosquito-borne flaviviruses, we jointly fit a transmission dynamic model to surveillance, serological and molecular data. We estimate that the observed dynamics of ZIKV were the result of two key factors: strong seasonal effects, which created an ecologically optimal time of year for outbreaks; and introduction of ZIKV after this optimal time, which allowed ZIKV transmission to persist over multiple seasons. The ability to jointly fit to multiple data sources could help identify a similar range of possible outbreak dynamics in other settings.

Suggested Citation

  • Alasdair D. Henderson & Mike Kama & Maite Aubry & Stephane Hue & Anita Teissier & Taina Naivalu & Vinaisi D. Bechu & Jimaima Kailawadoko & Isireli Rabukawaqa & Aalisha Sahukhan & Martin L. Hibberd & E, 2021. "Interactions between timing and transmissibility explain diverse flavivirus dynamics in Fiji," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-21788-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21788-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-21788-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-021-21788-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-21788-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.