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Potential health and economic impacts of dexamethasone treatment for patients with COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Ricardo Águas

    (University of Oxford)

  • Adam Mahdi

    (University of Oxford)

  • Rima Shretta

    (University of Oxford)

  • Peter Horby

    (University of Oxford)

  • Martin Landray

    (Medical Research Council Population Health Research Unit at the University of Oxford, Nuffield Department of Population Health)

  • Lisa White

    (University of Oxford)

Abstract

Dexamethasone can reduce mortality in hospitalised COVID-19 patients needing oxygen and ventilation by 18% and 36%, respectively. Here, we estimate the potential number of lives saved and life years gained if this treatment were to be rolled out in the UK and globally, as well as the cost-effectiveness of implementing this intervention. Assuming SARS-CoV-2 exposure levels of 5% to 15%, we estimate that, for the UK, approximately 12,000 (4,250 - 27,000) lives could be saved between July and December 2020. Assuming that dexamethasone has a similar effect size in settings where access to oxygen therapies is limited, this would translate into approximately 650,000 (240,000 - 1,400,000) lives saved globally over the same time period. If dexamethasone acts differently in these settings, the impact could be less than half of this value. To estimate the full potential of dexamethasone in the global fight against COVID-19, it is essential to perform clinical research in settings with limited access to oxygen and/or ventilators, for example in low- and middle-income countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Ricardo Águas & Adam Mahdi & Rima Shretta & Peter Horby & Martin Landray & Lisa White, 2021. "Potential health and economic impacts of dexamethasone treatment for patients with COVID-19," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-21134-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21134-2
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