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Climate adaptation by crop migration

Author

Listed:
  • Lindsey L. Sloat

    (Colorado State University
    Colorado State University)

  • Steven J. Davis

    (University of California)

  • James S. Gerber

    (University of Minnesota)

  • Frances C. Moore

    (University of California)

  • Deepak K. Ray

    (University of Minnesota)

  • Paul C. West

    (University of Minnesota)

  • Nathaniel D. Mueller

    (Colorado State University
    Colorado State University)

Abstract

Many studies have estimated the adverse effects of climate change on crop yields, however, this literature almost universally assumes a constant geographic distribution of crops in the future. Movement of growing areas to limit exposure to adverse climate conditions has been discussed as a theoretical adaptive response but has not previously been quantified or demonstrated at a global scale. Here, we assess how changes in rainfed crop area have already mediated growing season temperature trends for rainfed maize, wheat, rice, and soybean using spatially-explicit climate and crop area data from 1973 to 2012. Our results suggest that the most damaging impacts of warming on rainfed maize, wheat, and rice have been substantially moderated by the migration of these crops over time and the expansion of irrigation. However, continued migration may incur substantial environmental costs and will depend on socio-economic and political factors in addition to land suitability and climate.

Suggested Citation

  • Lindsey L. Sloat & Steven J. Davis & James S. Gerber & Frances C. Moore & Deepak K. Ray & Paul C. West & Nathaniel D. Mueller, 2020. "Climate adaptation by crop migration," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-15076-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-15076-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Alamgir Kabir & Md Nurul Amin & Kushal Roy & Md Sarwar Hossain, 2021. "Determinants of climate change adaptation strategies in the coastal zone of Bangladesh: implications for adaptation to climate change in developing countries," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 26(7), pages 1-25, October.
    2. Chen, Xiaoguang & Cui, Xiaomeng & Gao, Jing, 2023. "Differentiated agricultural sensitivity and adaptability to rising temperatures across regions and sectors in China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    3. Ahmed, Musa Hasen & Tesfaye, Wondimagegn Mesfin & Gassmann, Franziska, 2022. "Within Growing Season Weather Variability and Land Allocation Decisions: Evidence from Maize Farmers in Ethiopia," 96th Annual Conference, April 4-6, 2022, K U Leuven, Belgium 321171, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.
    4. Ke Liu & Matthew Tom Harrison & Haoliang Yan & De Li Liu & Holger Meinke & Gerrit Hoogenboom & Bin Wang & Bin Peng & Kaiyu Guan & Jonas Jaegermeyr & Enli Wang & Feng Zhang & Xiaogang Yin & Sotirios Ar, 2023. "Silver lining to a climate crisis in multiple prospects for alleviating crop waterlogging under future climates," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    5. Musa Hasen Ahmed & Wondimagegn Mesfin Tesfaye & Franziska Gassmann, 2023. "Early growing season weather variation, expectation formation and agricultural land allocation decisions in Ethiopia," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(1), pages 255-272, February.
    6. Yang, Meijian & Wang, Guiling, 2023. "Heat stress to jeopardize crop production in the US Corn Belt based on downscaled CMIP5 projections," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    7. Chandio, Abbas Ali & Ozdemir, Dicle & Jiang, Yuansheng, 2023. "Modelling the impact of climate change and advanced agricultural technologies on grain output: Recent evidence from China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 485(C).
    8. Christopher N. Boyer & Eunchun Park & Seong D. Yun, 2023. "Corn and soybean prevented planting acres response to weather," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(2), pages 970-983, June.
    9. Cordeiro, M.R.C. & Mengistu, G.F. & Pogue, S.J. & Legesse, G. & Gunte, K.E. & Taylor, A.M. & Ominski, K.H. & Beauchemin, K.A. & McGeough, E.J. & Faramarzi, M. & McAllister, T.A., 2022. "Assessing feed security for beef production within livestock-intensive regions," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    10. R. Aaron Hrozencik & Dale T. Manning & Jordan F. Suter & Christopher Goemans, 2022. "Impacts of Block‐Rate Energy Pricing on Groundwater Demand in Irrigated Agriculture," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(1), pages 404-427, January.
    11. Bohan, David & Schmucki, Reto & Abay, Abrha & Termansen, Mette & Bane, Miranda & Charalabiis, Alice & Cong, Rong-Gang & Derocles, Stephane & Dorner, Zita & Forster, Matthieu & Gibert, Caroline & Harro, 2020. "Designing farmer-acceptable rotations that assure ecosystem service provision inthe face of climate change," MPRA Paper 112313, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Anshuman Gunawat & Devesh Sharma & Aditya Sharma & Swatantra Kumar Dubey, 2022. "Assessment of climate change impact and potential adaptation measures on wheat yield using the DSSAT model in the semi-arid environment," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(2), pages 2077-2096, March.
    13. Chen, Xiaoguang & Cui, Xiaomeng & Gao, Jing, 2023. "Differentiated Agricultural Sensitivity and Adaptability to Rising Temperatures across Regions and Sectors in China," 2023 Annual Meeting, July 23-25, Washington D.C. 335522, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    14. Katharina Schulze & Žiga Malek & Dmitry Schepaschenko & Myroslava Lesiv & Steffen Fritz & Peter H. Verburg, 2023. "Pantropical distribution of short-rotation woody plantations: spatial probabilities under current and future climate," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 1-22, June.
    15. Ahmed, Musa Hasen & Tesfaye, Wondimagegn & Stephan, Dietrich & Gassmann, Franziska, 2021. "Within Growing Season Weather Variability and Adaptation in Agriculture: Evidence from Cropping Patterns of Ethiopia," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315056, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    16. Na Huang & Jialin Wang & Yu Song & Yuying Pan & Guolin Han & Ziyuan Zhang & Shangqian Ma & Guofeng Sun & Cong Liu & Zhihua Pan, 2022. "The adaptation mechanism based on an integrated vulnerability assessment of potato production to climate change in Inner Mongolia, China," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 1-19, March.
    17. Timothy M. Lenton & Chi Xu & Jesse F. Abrams & Ashish Ghadiali & Sina Loriani & Boris Sakschewski & Caroline Zimm & Kristie L. Ebi & Robert R. Dunn & Jens-Christian Svenning & Marten Scheffer, 2023. "Quantifying the human cost of global warming," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 6(10), pages 1237-1247, October.
    18. Wing, Ian Sue & De Cian, Enrica & Mistry, Malcolm N., 2021. "Global vulnerability of crop yields to climate change," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).

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