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Reduced probability of ice-free summers for 1.5 °C compared to 2 °C warming

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  • Alexandra Jahn

    (University of Colorado at Boulder)

Abstract

Arctic sea ice has declined rapidly with increasing global temperatures. However, it is largely unknown how Arctic summer sea-ice impacts would vary under the 1.5 °C Paris target compared to scenarios with greater warming. Using the Community Earth System Model, I show that constraining warming to 1.5 °C rather than 2.0 °C reduces the probability of any summer ice-free conditions by 2100 from 100% to 30%. It also reduces the late-century probability of an ice cover below the 2012 record minimum from 98% to 55%. For warming above 2 °C, frequent ice-free conditions can be expected, potentially for several months per year. Although sea-ice loss is generally reversible for decreasing temperatures, sea ice will only recover to current conditions if atmospheric CO2 is reduced below present-day concentrations. Due to model biases, these results provide a lower bound on summer sea-ice impacts, but clearly demonstrate the benefits of constraining warming to 1.5 °C.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandra Jahn, 2018. "Reduced probability of ice-free summers for 1.5 °C compared to 2 °C warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(5), pages 409-413, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:8:y:2018:i:5:d:10.1038_s41558-018-0127-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0127-8
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