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Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5 °C

Author

Listed:
  • Joeri Rogelj

    (Energy Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
    Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich)

  • Gunnar Luderer

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK))

  • Robert C. Pietzcker

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK))

  • Elmar Kriegler

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK))

  • Michiel Schaeffer

    (Climate Analytics
    Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University and Research Centre)

  • Volker Krey

    (Energy Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Keywan Riahi

    (Energy Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
    Graz University of Technology)

Abstract

A new analysis shows that global warming could be limited to 1.5 °C by 2100, but that the window for achieving this is small and rapidly closing.

Suggested Citation

  • Joeri Rogelj & Gunnar Luderer & Robert C. Pietzcker & Elmar Kriegler & Michiel Schaeffer & Volker Krey & Keywan Riahi, 2015. "Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5 °C," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(6), pages 519-527, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:5:y:2015:i:6:d:10.1038_nclimate2572
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2572
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    Cited by:

    1. Ken Oshiro & Shinichiro Fujimori, 2024. "Limited impact of hydrogen co-firing on prolonging fossil-based power generation under low emissions scenarios," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Zhu, Qianru & Leibowicz, Benjamin D. & Busby, Joshua W. & Shidore, Sarang & Adelman, David E. & Olmstead, Sheila M., 2022. "Enhancing policy realism in energy system optimization models: Politically feasible decarbonization pathways for the United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    3. Pan, Xunzhang & Ma, Xueqing & Zhang, Yanru & Shao, Tianming & Peng, Tianduo & Li, Xiang & Wang, Lining & Chen, Wenying, 2023. "Implications of carbon neutrality for power sector investments and stranded coal assets in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    4. Kılkış, Şiir, 2021. "Transition towards urban system integration and benchmarking of an urban area to accelerate mitigation towards net-zero targets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    5. Hollands, A.F. & Daly, H., 2023. "Modelling the integrated achievement of clean cooking access and climate mitigation goals: An energy systems optimization approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    6. Jing-Li Fan & Zezheng Li & Xi Huang & Kai Li & Xian Zhang & Xi Lu & Jianzhong Wu & Klaus Hubacek & Bo Shen, 2023. "A net-zero emissions strategy for China’s power sector using carbon-capture utilization and storage," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    7. Mandana Mazaheri & Yvonne Scorgie & Richard A. Broome & Geoffrey G. Morgan & Bin Jalaludin & Matthew L. Riley, 2021. "Monetising Air Pollution Benefits of Clean Energy Requires Locally Specific Information," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-14, November.
    8. Patrycjusz Zarębski & Dominik Katarzyński, 2023. "A Theoretical Framework for a Local Energy Innovation System Based on the Renewable Energy Case of Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-24, April.
    9. Fambri, Gabriele & Diaz-Londono, Cesar & Mazza, Andrea & Badami, Marco & Sihvonen, Teemu & Weiss, Robert, 2022. "Techno-economic analysis of Power-to-Gas plants in a gas and electricity distribution network system with high renewable energy penetration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
    10. Patange, Omkar S. & Garg, Amit & Jayaswal, Sachin, 2022. "An integrated bottom-up optimization to investigate the role of BECCS in transitioning towards a net-zero energy system: A case study from Gujarat, India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    11. Arnulf Grubler & Charlie Wilson & Nuno Bento & Benigna Boza-Kiss & Volker Krey & David L. McCollum & Narasimha D. Rao & Keywan Riahi & Joeri Rogelj & Simon Stercke & Jonathan Cullen & Stefan Frank & O, 2018. "A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °C target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 3(6), pages 515-527, June.
    12. Florian Leblanc & Ruben Bibas & Silvana Mima & Matteo Muratori & Shogo Sakamoto & Fuminori Sano & Nico Bauer & Vassilis Daioglou & Shinichiro Fujimori & Matthew J Gidden & Estsushi Kato & Steven K Ros, 2022. "The contribution of bioenergy to the decarbonization of transport: a multi-model assessment," Post-Print hal-03558507, HAL.
    13. Panos, Evangelos & Glynn, James & Kypreos, Socrates & Lehtilä, Antti & Yue, Xiufeng & Ó Gallachóir, Brian & Daniels, David & Dai, Hancheng, 2023. "Deep decarbonisation pathways of the energy system in times of unprecedented uncertainty in the energy sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    14. Pinto, Ricardo & Henriques, Sofia T. & Brockway, Paul E. & Heun, Matthew Kuperus & Sousa, Tânia, 2023. "The rise and stall of world electricity efficiency:1900–2017, results and insights for the renewables transition," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    15. Singha Chaveesuk & Wornchanok Chaiyasoonthorn & Nayika Kamales & Zdzislawa Dacko-Pikiewicz & Wiesław Liszewski & Bilal Khalid, 2023. "Evaluating the Determinants of Consumer Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles in Thailand—An Extended UTAUT Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-22, January.
    16. Qiu, Yang & Cohen, Stuart & Suh, Sangwon, 2022. "Decarbonization scenarios of the U.S. Electricity system and their costs," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    17. Lara Aleluia Reis & Zoi Vrontisi & Elena Verdolini & Kostas Fragkiadakis & Massimo Tavoni, 2023. "A research and development investment strategy to achieve the Paris climate agreement," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    18. Morgenthaler, Simon & Dünzen, Justus & Stadler, Ingo & Witthaut, Dirk, 2021. "Three stages in the co-transformation of the energy and mobility sectors," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    19. Kennedy, Christopher, 2022. "Capital, energy and carbon in the United States economy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 314(C).
    20. Chen, Hao & Qi, Shaozhou & Zhang, Jihong, 2022. "Towards carbon neutrality with Chinese characteristics: From an integrated perspective of economic growth-equity-environment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 324(C).
    21. Chen, Haoqian & Sui, Yi & Shang, Wen-long & Sun, Rencheng & Chen, Zhiheng & Wang, Changying & Han, Chunjia & Zhang, Yuqian & Zhang, Haoran, 2022. "Towards renewable public transport: Mining the performance of electric buses using solar-radiation as an auxiliary power source," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    22. Kullmann, Felix & Markewitz, Peter & Kotzur, Leander & Stolten, Detlef, 2022. "The value of recycling for low-carbon energy systems - A case study of Germany's energy transition," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    23. Cheng, Fangwei & Luo, Hongxi & Jenkins, Jesse D. & Larson, Eric D., 2023. "The value of low- and negative-carbon fuels in the transition to net-zero emission economies: Lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions and cost assessments across multiple fuel types," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    24. Hepburn, Cameron & Pfeiffer, Alexander & Vogt-Schilb, Adrien & J. Tulloch, Daniel, 2018. "Dead on arrival? Implicit stranded assets in leading IAM scenarios," INET Oxford Working Papers 2018-08, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    25. Qian Zhang & Christopher Kennedy & Tao Wang & Wendong Wei & Jiashuo Li & Lei Shi, 2020. "Transforming the coal and steel nexus for China's eco‐civilization: Interplay between rail and energy infrastructure," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 24(6), pages 1352-1363, December.

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