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Well-estimated global surface warming in climate projections selected for ENSO phase

Author

Listed:
  • James S. Risbey

    (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere)

  • Stephan Lewandowsky

    (School of Experimental Psychology and Cabot Institute, University of Bristol
    School of Psychology, University of Western Australia)

  • Clothilde Langlais

    (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere)

  • Didier P. Monselesan

    (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere)

  • Terence J. O’Kane

    (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere)

  • Naomi Oreskes

    (Harvard University)

Abstract

The question of how climate model projections have tracked the actual evolution of global mean surface air temperature is important in establishing the credibility of their projections. Some studies and the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report suggest that the recent 15-year period (1998–2012) provides evidence that models are overestimating current temperature evolution. Such comparisons are not evidence against model trends because they represent only one realization where the decadal natural variability component of the model climate is generally not in phase with observations. We present a more appropriate test of models where only those models with natural variability (represented by El Niño/Southern Oscillation) largely in phase with observations are selected from multi-model ensembles for comparison with observations. These tests show that climate models have provided good estimates of 15-year trends, including for recent periods and for Pacific spatial trend patterns.

Suggested Citation

  • James S. Risbey & Stephan Lewandowsky & Clothilde Langlais & Didier P. Monselesan & Terence J. O’Kane & Naomi Oreskes, 2014. "Well-estimated global surface warming in climate projections selected for ENSO phase," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(9), pages 835-840, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:4:y:2014:i:9:d:10.1038_nclimate2310
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2310
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    Cited by:

    1. Brian Pentz & Nicole Klenk, 2020. "Understanding the limitations of current RFMO climate change adaptation strategies: the case of the IATTC and the Eastern Pacific Ocean," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 21-39, March.
    2. Amanda West & Sunil Kumar & Catherine Jarnevich, 2016. "Regional modeling of large wildfires under current and potential future climates in Colorado and Wyoming, USA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(4), pages 565-577, February.
    3. Michael R. Grose & James S. Risbey & Penny H. Whetton, 2017. "Tracking regional temperature projections from the early 1990s in light of variations in regional warming, including ‘warming holes’," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(2), pages 307-322, January.
    4. Amanda M. West & Sunil Kumar & Catherine S. Jarnevich, 2016. "Regional modeling of large wildfires under current and potential future climates in Colorado and Wyoming, USA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(4), pages 565-577, February.
    5. Jie Chen & François P. Brissette & Xunchang J. Zhang & Hua Chen & Shenglian Guo & Yan Zhao, 2019. "Bias correcting climate model multi-member ensembles to assess climate change impacts on hydrology," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 153(3), pages 361-377, April.
    6. Ryan O’Loughlin, 2024. "Why we need lower-performance climate models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(2), pages 1-20, February.

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