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Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming

Author

Listed:
  • Wenju Cai

    (CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research
    Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Qingdao Collaborative Innovation Center of Marine Science and Technology, Ocean University of China)

  • Simon Borlace

    (CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research)

  • Matthieu Lengaigne

    (Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat: Expérimentation et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), IRD/UPMC/CNRS/MNHN)

  • Peter van Rensch

    (CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research)

  • Mat Collins

    (College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical Sciences, Harrison Building, Streatham Campus, University of Exeter)

  • Gabriel Vecchi

    (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA)

  • Axel Timmermann

    (IPRC, SOEST, University of Hawaii)

  • Agus Santoso

    (Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Level 4 Mathews Building, The University of New South Wales)

  • Michael J. McPhaden

    (NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory)

  • Lixin Wu

    (Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Qingdao Collaborative Innovation Center of Marine Science and Technology, Ocean University of China)

  • Matthew H. England

    (Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Level 4 Mathews Building, The University of New South Wales)

  • Guojian Wang

    (CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research
    Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Qingdao Collaborative Innovation Center of Marine Science and Technology, Ocean University of China)

  • Eric Guilyardi

    (Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat: Expérimentation et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), IRD/UPMC/CNRS/MNHN
    NCAS-Climate, University of Reading)

  • Fei-Fei Jin

    (SOEST, University of Hawaii)

Abstract

Extreme El Niño events cause global disruption of weather patterns and affect ecosystems and agriculture through changes in rainfall. Model projections show that a doubling in the occurrence of such extreme episodes is caused by increased surface warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, which results in the atmospheric conditions required for these event to occur.

Suggested Citation

  • Wenju Cai & Simon Borlace & Matthieu Lengaigne & Peter van Rensch & Mat Collins & Gabriel Vecchi & Axel Timmermann & Agus Santoso & Michael J. McPhaden & Lixin Wu & Matthew H. England & Guojian Wang &, 2014. "Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(2), pages 111-116, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:4:y:2014:i:2:d:10.1038_nclimate2100
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2100
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    Cited by:

    1. Davis, Katrina J, 2022. "Managed culls mean extinction for a marine mammal population when combined with extreme climate impacts," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 473(C).
    2. Johann D. Bell & Inna Senina & Timothy Adams & Olivier Aumont & Beatriz Calmettes & Sangaalofa Clark & Morgane Dessert & Marion Gehlen & Thomas Gorgues & John Hampton & Quentin Hanich & Harriet Harden, 2021. "Pathways to sustaining tuna-dependent Pacific Island economies during climate change," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 4(10), pages 900-910, October.
    3. Tao Geng & Wenju Cai & Lixin Wu & Agus Santoso & Guojian Wang & Zhao Jing & Bolan Gan & Yun Yang & Shujun Li & Shengpeng Wang & Zhaohui Chen & Michael J. McPhaden, 2022. "Emergence of changing Central-Pacific and Eastern-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation in a warming climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Savin Chand & Scott Power & Kevin Walsh & Neil Holbrook & Kathleen McInnes & Kevin Tory & Hamish Ramsay & Ron Hoeke & Anthony S. Kiem, 2023. "Climate processes and drivers in the Pacific and global warming: a review for informing Pacific planning agencies," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(2), pages 1-16, February.
    5. Damette, Olivier & Mathonnat, Clément & Thavard, Julien, 2024. "Climate and sovereign risk: The Latin American experience with strong ENSO events," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    6. Joshua B. Horton & Penehuro Lefale & David Keith, 2021. "Parametric Insurance for Solar Geoengineering: Insights from the Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 12(S1), pages 97-107, April.
    7. Omid Alizadeh, 2022. "Amplitude, duration, variability, and seasonal frequency analysis of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 174(3), pages 1-15, October.
    8. Geon-Il Kim & Ji-Hoon Oh & Na-Yeon Shin & Soon-Il An & Sang-Wook Yeh & Jongsoo Shin & Jong-Seong Kug, 2024. "Deep ocean warming-induced El Niño changes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-8, December.
    9. Hosmay Lopez & Sang-Ki Lee & Dongmin Kim & Andrew T. Wittenberg & Sang-Wook Yeh, 2022. "Projections of faster onset and slower decay of El Niño in the 21st century," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    10. Wei, Yu & Zhang, Jiahao & Chen, Yongfei & Wang, Yizhi, 2022. "The impacts of El Niño-southern oscillation on renewable energy stock markets: Evidence from quantile perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    11. Luo, Erga & Yan, Ru & He, Yaping & Han, Zhen & Feng, Yiyu & Qian, Wenrong & Li, Jinkai, 2024. "Does biogas industrial policy promote the industrial transformation?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    12. Aguilar, Arturo & Vicarelli, Marta, 2022. "El Niño and children: Medium-term effects of early-life weather shocks on cognitive and health outcomes," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    13. Yadav, Alka & Das, Sourish & Bakar, K. Shuvo & Chakraborti, Anirban, 2023. "Understanding the complex dynamics of climate change in south-west Australia using Machine Learning," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 627(C).
    14. Anil Deo & Savin S. Chand & R. Duncan McIntosh & Bipen Prakash & Neil J. Holbrook & Andrew Magee & Alick Haruhiru & Philip Malsale, 2022. "Severe tropical cyclones over southwest Pacific Islands: economic impacts and implications for disaster risk management," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 1-23, June.
    15. Jiping Liu & Mirong Song & Zhu Zhu & Radley M. Horton & Yongyun Hu & Shang-Ping Xie, 2022. "Arctic sea-ice loss is projected to lead to more frequent strong El Niño events," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    16. Katharina Waha & John Clarke & Kavina Dayal & Mandy Freund & Craig Heady & Irene Parisi & Elisabeth Vogel, 2022. "Past and future rainfall changes in the Australian midlatitudes and implications for agriculture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-21, February.
    17. Ryan Cronin & Anthony Halog, 2022. "A Unique Perspective of Materials, Practices and Structures Within the Food, Energy and Water Nexus of Australian Urban Alternative Food Networks," Circular Economy and Sustainability, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 327-349, March.
    18. Su, Chi Wei & Wei, Shenkai & Wang, Yan & Tao, Ran, 2024. "How does climate policy uncertainty affect the carbon market?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    19. Karydas, Christos & Xepapadeas, Anastasios, 2022. "Climate change financial risks: Implications for asset pricing and interest rates," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    20. Michele Ronco & José María Tárraga & Jordi Muñoz & María Piles & Eva Sevillano Marco & Qiang Wang & Maria Teresa Miranda Espinosa & Sylvain Ponserre & Gustau Camps-Valls, 2023. "Exploring interactions between socioeconomic context and natural hazards on human population displacement," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.

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