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Assessing risk of ecosystem collapse in a changing climate

Author

Listed:
  • Jessica A. Rowland

    (Deakin University
    Monash University
    IUCN Commission on Ecosystem Management)

  • Emily Nicholson

    (Deakin University
    IUCN Commission on Ecosystem Management
    The University of Melbourne)

  • José R. Ferrer-Paris

    (IUCN Commission on Ecosystem Management
    University of New South Wales
    UNSW Data Science Hub)

  • David A. Keith

    (IUCN Commission on Ecosystem Management
    University of New South Wales)

  • Nicholas J. Murray

    (James Cook University)

  • Chloe F. Sato

    (Deakin University
    Parks Australia)

  • Anikó B. Tóth

    (University of New South Wales)

  • Arn Tolsma

    (Environment and Climate Action)

  • Susanna Venn

    (Deakin University)

  • Marianne V. Asmüssen

    (IUCN Commission on Ecosystem Management
    Instituto Venezolano de Investigaciones Científicas
    Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile)

  • Patricio Pliscoff

    (Universidad de Los Andes
    Instituto de Ecología y Biodiversidad (IEB))

  • Carlos Zambrana-Torrelio

    (George Mason University)

  • Rebecca E. Lester

    (Deakin University)

  • Tracey J. Regan

    (The University of Melbourne
    Environment and Climate Action)

Abstract

Climate change affects ecosystems globally, but their diversity and complexity make it difficult to estimate how severe these impacts are. Here we discuss how to conceptualize the effects of climate change on ecosystems so that they can be reliably captured in ecosystem risk assessments, focusing on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Ecosystems, a headline indicator for the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. We highlight key challenges and propose solutions, which include using diverse teams, conceptual models and data sources (including projections), learning from analogous ecosystems, and evaluating uncertainties. This approach will improve the capacity to produce reliable assessments of risk under climate change to inform timely and effective conservation.

Suggested Citation

  • Jessica A. Rowland & Emily Nicholson & José R. Ferrer-Paris & David A. Keith & Nicholas J. Murray & Chloe F. Sato & Anikó B. Tóth & Arn Tolsma & Susanna Venn & Marianne V. Asmüssen & Patricio Pliscoff, 2025. "Assessing risk of ecosystem collapse in a changing climate," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 15(6), pages 597-609, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:15:y:2025:i:6:d:10.1038_s41558-025-02324-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02324-y
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