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Constrained Earth system models show a stronger reduction in future Northern Hemisphere snowmelt water

Author

Listed:
  • Yuanfang Chai

    (Beijing Normal University)

  • Chiyuan Miao

    (Beijing Normal University)

  • Pierre Gentine

    (Columbia University)

  • Lawrence Mudryk

    (Environment and Climate Change Canada)

  • Chad W. Thackeray

    (University of California, Los Angeles)

  • Wouter R. Berghuijs

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • Yi Wu

    (Beijing Normal University)

  • Xuewei Fan

    (Beijing Normal University)

  • Louise Slater

    (University of Oxford)

  • Qiaohong Sun

    (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology)

  • Francis Zwiers

    (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
    University of Victoria)

Abstract

Although Earth system models (ESMs) tend to overestimate historical land surface warming, they also overestimate snow amounts in the Northern Hemisphere. By combining ground-based datasets and ESMs, we find that this paradoxical phenomenon is predominantly driven by an overestimation of light snowfall frequency. Using spatially distributed emergent constraints, we show that this paradox persists in mid- (2041–2060) and long-term (2081–2100) projections, affecting more than half of the Northern Hemisphere’s land surface. ESMs underestimate the frequency of freezing days by 12–19% and overestimate snow water equivalent by 28–34%. Constrained projections indicate that the raw ESM outputs overestimate future Northern Hemisphere snowmelt water by 12–16% across 53–60% of the Northern Hemisphere’s land surface. This snowmelt water overprediction implies that the amount of water available in the future for agriculture, industry, ecosystems and domestic use may be lower than unadjusted ESM projections suggest.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuanfang Chai & Chiyuan Miao & Pierre Gentine & Lawrence Mudryk & Chad W. Thackeray & Wouter R. Berghuijs & Yi Wu & Xuewei Fan & Louise Slater & Qiaohong Sun & Francis Zwiers, 2025. "Constrained Earth system models show a stronger reduction in future Northern Hemisphere snowmelt water," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 15(5), pages 514-520, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:15:y:2025:i:5:d:10.1038_s41558-025-02308-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02308-y
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