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Regional conditions determine thresholds of accelerated Antarctic basal melt in climate projection

Author

Listed:
  • Pengyang Song

    (Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research)

  • Patrick Scholz

    (Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research)

  • Gregor Knorr

    (Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research)

  • Dmitry Sidorenko

    (Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research)

  • Ralph Timmermann

    (Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research)

  • Gerrit Lohmann

    (Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
    University of Bremen)

Abstract

Antarctic basal melt is crucial for the future evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet and ocean circulation. However, few Earth system models explicitly simulate ice-shelf cavities. Here, using an Earth system model with interactive Antarctic ice-shelf cavities, we show that regional hydrography and topography determine a cavity tipping point. The Filchner–Ronne ice-shelf cavity will encounter such a tipping point with abrupt warm-water intrusion, rapid basal melt increase and massive freshwater release in response to increasing CO2 levels within this century. Conversely, the Ross Ice Shelf shows a more gradual response. Our results also suggest that previous ice-sheet modelling overestimated future ice-shelf melt, highlighting the need for comprehensive Earth system models with interactive ice-sheet dynamics and cavities for better climate projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Pengyang Song & Patrick Scholz & Gregor Knorr & Dmitry Sidorenko & Ralph Timmermann & Gerrit Lohmann, 2025. "Regional conditions determine thresholds of accelerated Antarctic basal melt in climate projection," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 15(5), pages 521-527, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:15:y:2025:i:5:d:10.1038_s41558-025-02306-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02306-0
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