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China’s carbon sinks from land-use change underestimated

Author

Listed:
  • Yakun Zhu

    (Sun Yat-Sen University
    Eastern Institute of Technology)

  • Xiaosheng Xia

    (Sun Yat-Sen University)

  • Josep G. Canadell

    (CSIRO Environment)

  • Shilong Piao

    (Peking University)

  • Xinqing Lu

    (Sun Yat-Sen University)

  • Umakant Mishra

    (Sandia National Laboratories)

  • Xuhui Wang

    (Peking University)

  • Wenping Yuan

    (Peking University)

  • Zhangcai Qin

    (Sun Yat-Sen University)

Abstract

The size and attribution of the regional net carbon flux from land-use change (LUC) activities (ELUC) are often highly debated, especially in regions such as China, which has experienced decades-long extensive reforestation activities. Here, using a LUC dataset incorporating remote-sensing and national forest inventory data with two modelling approaches, we show that ELUC in China shifted from a carbon source to a sink in the 1990s, contributing to a net cumulative CO2 removal of 2.0 Pg C during 1981–2020. From 2001 to 2020, the average ELUC was −0.14 Pg C yr−1, accounting for over one-third of the national land carbon sinks. Forest-related LUC activities contributed greatly to national carbon fluxes, while non-forest-related activities played a dominant role in certain areas. Our findings suggest that the carbon sinks from LUC activities in China may be largely underestimated in global assessments, underscoring the need to develop region-specific modelling for evaluation and potential regulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Yakun Zhu & Xiaosheng Xia & Josep G. Canadell & Shilong Piao & Xinqing Lu & Umakant Mishra & Xuhui Wang & Wenping Yuan & Zhangcai Qin, 2025. "China’s carbon sinks from land-use change underestimated," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 15(4), pages 428-435, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:15:y:2025:i:4:d:10.1038_s41558-025-02296-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02296-z
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