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A climate risk index for marine life

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel G. Boyce

    (Dalhousie University
    Fisheries and Oceans Canada)

  • Derek P. Tittensor

    (Dalhousie University
    United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre)

  • Cristina Garilao

    (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research)

  • Stephanie Henson

    (National Oceanography Centre)

  • Kristin Kaschner

    (University of Freiburg)

  • Kathleen Kesner-Reyes

    (Quantitative Aquatics)

  • Alex Pigot

    (University College London)

  • Rodolfo B. Reyes

    (Quantitative Aquatics)

  • Gabriel Reygondeau

    (University of British Columbia)

  • Kathryn E. Schleit

    (Oceans North)

  • Nancy L. Shackell

    (Fisheries and Oceans Canada)

  • Patricia Sorongon-Yap

    (Quantitative Aquatics)

  • Boris Worm

    (Dalhousie University)

Abstract

Climate change is impacting virtually all marine life. Adaptation strategies will require a robust understanding of the risks to species and ecosystems and how those propagate to human societies. We develop a unified and spatially explicit index to comprehensively evaluate the climate risks to marine life. Under high emissions (SSP5-8.5), almost 90% of ~25,000 species are at high or critical risk, with species at risk across 85% of their native distributions. One tenth of the ocean contains ecosystems where the aggregated climate risk, endemism and extinction threat of their constituent species are high. Climate change poses the greatest risk for exploited species in low-income countries with a high dependence on fisheries. Mitigating emissions (SSP1-2.6) reduces the risk for virtually all species (98.2%), enhances ecosystem stability and disproportionately benefits food-insecure populations in low-income countries. Our climate risk assessment can help prioritize vulnerable species and ecosystems for climate-adapted marine conservation and fisheries management efforts.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel G. Boyce & Derek P. Tittensor & Cristina Garilao & Stephanie Henson & Kristin Kaschner & Kathleen Kesner-Reyes & Alex Pigot & Rodolfo B. Reyes & Gabriel Reygondeau & Kathryn E. Schleit & Nancy , 2022. "A climate risk index for marine life," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(9), pages 854-862, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:9:d:10.1038_s41558-022-01437-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01437-y
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