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Increase in Arctic coastal erosion and its sensitivity to warming in the twenty-first century

Author

Listed:
  • David Marcolino Nielsen

    (Universität Hamburg
    International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling)

  • Patrick Pieper

    (Universität Hamburg)

  • Armineh Barkhordarian

    (Universität Hamburg)

  • Paul Overduin

    (Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research)

  • Tatiana Ilyina

    (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology)

  • Victor Brovkin

    (Universität Hamburg
    Max Planck Institute for Meteorology)

  • Johanna Baehr

    (Universität Hamburg)

  • Mikhail Dobrynin

    (Universität Hamburg
    Deutscher Wetterdienst)

Abstract

Arctic coastal erosion damages infrastructure, threatens coastal communities and releases organic carbon from permafrost. However, the magnitude, timing and sensitivity of coastal erosion increase to global warming remain unknown. Here we project the Arctic-mean erosion rate to increase and very likely exceed its historical range of variability before the end of the century in a wide range of emission scenarios. The sensitivity of erosion to warming roughly doubles, reaching 0.4–0.8 m yr−1 °C−1 and 2.3–4.2 TgC yr−1 °C−1 by the end of the century. We develop a simplified semi-empirical model to produce twenty-first-century pan-Arctic coastal erosion rate projections. Our results will inform policymakers on coastal conservation and socioeconomic planning, and organic carbon flux projections lay out the path for future work to investigate the impact of Arctic coastal erosion on the changing Arctic Ocean, its role as a global carbon sink, and the permafrost–carbon feedback.

Suggested Citation

  • David Marcolino Nielsen & Patrick Pieper & Armineh Barkhordarian & Paul Overduin & Tatiana Ilyina & Victor Brovkin & Johanna Baehr & Mikhail Dobrynin, 2022. "Increase in Arctic coastal erosion and its sensitivity to warming in the twenty-first century," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(3), pages 263-270, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1038_s41558-022-01281-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01281-0
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Justus Gimsa & Michael Fritz & Hugues Lantuit, 2025. "Nearshore Hydrodynamics and Sediment Dispersal Along Eroding Permafrost Coasts—Insights From Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler Measurements Around Herschel Island–Qikiqtaruk (Yukon, Canada)," Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(2), pages 205-216, June.
    2. Nataliya Marchenko & Aleksey Marchenko, 2025. "Longyearbyen Lagoon (Spitsbergen): Gravel Spits Movement Rate and Mechanisms," Geographies, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-28, April.
    3. Zofia Owczarek, 2025. "Spatio‐temporal Changes of Svalbard Lagoon Systems in the Post‐Little‐Ice‐Age Period," Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(2), pages 284-301, June.
    4. Christopher R. Burn & Annett Bartsch & Elora Chakraborty & Soumik Das & Regula Frauenfelder & Isabelle Gärtner‐Roer & Kjersti G. Gisnås & Teddi Herring & Benjamin M. Jones & Steven V. Kokelj & Moritz , 2025. "Developments in Permafrost Science and Engineering in Response to Climate Warming in Circumpolar and High Mountain Regions, 2019–2024," Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(2), pages 167-188, June.
    5. Shijin Wang, 2024. "Opportunities and threats of cryosphere change to the achievement of UN 2030 SDGs," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, December.
    6. Zofia Stachowska & Willem G. M. Bilt & Mateusz C. Strzelecki, 2024. "Coastal lake sediments from Arctic Svalbard suggest colder summers are stormier," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    7. Moritz Mathis & Fabrice Lacroix & Stefan Hagemann & David Marcolino Nielsen & Tatiana Ilyina & Corinna Schrum, 2024. "Enhanced CO2 uptake of the coastal ocean is dominated by biological carbon fixation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 14(4), pages 373-379, April.
    8. Maren Jenrich & Michael Angelopoulos & Susanne Liebner & Claire Treat & Christian Knoblauch & Sizhong Yang & Guido Grosse & Fiona Giebeler & Loeka L. Jongejans & Mikhail Grigoriev & Jens Strauss, 2025. "Greenhouse Gas Production and Microbial Response During the Transition From Terrestrial Permafrost to a Marine Environment," Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(1), pages 63-82, January.
    9. Xun Zhu & Timothy J. Pasch & Mohamed Aymane Ahajjam & Aaron Bergstrom, 2022. "Environmental Monitoring for Arctic Resiliency and Sustainability: An Integrated Approach with Topic Modeling and Network Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-20, December.

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