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Climate warming may increase the frequency of cold-adapted haplotypes in alpine plants

Author

Listed:
  • Johannes Wessely

    (University of Vienna)

  • Andreas Gattringer

    (University of Vienna)

  • Frédéric Guillaume

    (University of Helsinki)

  • Karl Hülber

    (University of Vienna)

  • Günther Klonner

    (University of Vienna)

  • Dietmar Moser

    (University of Vienna
    Environment Agency)

  • Stefan Dullinger

    (University of Vienna)

Abstract

Modelling of climate-driven range shifts commonly treats species as ecologically homogeneous units. However, many species show intraspecific variation of climatic niches and theory predicts that such variation may lead to counterintuitive eco-evolutionary dynamics. Here, we incorporate assumed intraspecific niche variation into a dynamic range model and explore possible consequences for six high-mountain plant species of the European Alps under scenarios of twenty-first century climate warming. At the species level, the results indicate massive range loss independent of intraspecific variation. At the intraspecific level, the model predicts a decrease in the frequency of warm-adapted haplotypes in five species. The latter effect is probably driven by a combination of leading-edge colonization and priority effects within the species’ elevational range and was weakest when leading-edge expansion was constrained by mountain topography The resulting maladaptation may additionally increase the risk that alpine plants face from shrinkage of their ranges in a warming climate.

Suggested Citation

  • Johannes Wessely & Andreas Gattringer & Frédéric Guillaume & Karl Hülber & Günther Klonner & Dietmar Moser & Stefan Dullinger, 2022. "Climate warming may increase the frequency of cold-adapted haplotypes in alpine plants," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 77-82, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41558-021-01255-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01255-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Kota Mameno & Takahiro Kubo & Hiroyuki Oguma & Yukihiro Amagai & Yasushi Shoji, 2022. "Decline in the alpine landscape aesthetic value in a national park under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-18, February.

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