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Future increases in Arctic lightning and fire risk for permafrost carbon

Author

Listed:
  • Yang Chen

    (University of California)

  • David M. Romps

    (University of California
    Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory)

  • Jacob T. Seeley

    (University of California
    Harvard University)

  • Sander Veraverbeke

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • William J. Riley

    (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory)

  • Zelalem A. Mekonnen

    (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory)

  • James T. Randerson

    (University of California)

Abstract

Lightning is an indicator and a driver of climate change. Here, using satellite observations of lightning flash rate and ERA5 reanalysis, we find that the spatial pattern of summer lightning over northern circumpolar regions exhibits a strong positive relationship with the product of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and precipitation. Applying this relationship to Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate projections for a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5) shows an increase in CAPE (86 ± 22%) and precipitation (17 ± 2%) in areas underlain by permafrost, causing summer lightning to increase by 112 ± 38% by the end of the century (2081–2100). Future flash rates at the northern treeline are comparable to current levels 480 km to the south in boreal forests. We hypothesize that lightning increases may induce a fire–vegetation feedback whereby more burning in Arctic tundra expedites the northward migration of boreal trees, with the potential to accelerate the positive feedback associated with permafrost soil carbon release.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang Chen & David M. Romps & Jacob T. Seeley & Sander Veraverbeke & William J. Riley & Zelalem A. Mekonnen & James T. Randerson, 2021. "Future increases in Arctic lightning and fire risk for permafrost carbon," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(5), pages 404-410, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:11:y:2021:i:5:d:10.1038_s41558-021-01011-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01011-y
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    Cited by:

    1. Yufei Zou & Philip J. Rasch & Hailong Wang & Zuowei Xie & Rudong Zhang, 2021. "Increasing large wildfires over the western United States linked to diminishing sea ice in the Arctic," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Moisei Zakharov & Sébastien Gadal & Jūratė Kamičaitytė & Mikhail Cherosov & Elena Troeva, 2022. "Distribution and Structure Analysis of Mountain Permafrost Landscape in Orulgan Ridge (Northeast Siberia) Using Google Earth Engine," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-21, July.
    3. Ivan Villaverde Canosa & James Ford & Jouni Paavola & Daria Burnasheva, 2024. "Community Risk and Resilience to Wildfires: Rethinking the Complex Human–Climate–Fire Relationship in High-Latitude Regions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-22, January.
    4. Daniel J. Vecellio & Oliver W. Frauenfeld, 2022. "Surface and sub-surface drivers of autumn temperature increase over Eurasian permafrost," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(1), pages 1-18, May.
    5. Zhichao Xu & Wei Shan & Ying Guo & Chengcheng Zhang & Lisha Qiu, 2022. "Swamp Wetlands in Degraded Permafrost Areas Release Large Amounts of Methane and May Promote Wildfires through Friction Electrification," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-28, July.
    6. Jasper Dijkstra & Tracy Durrant & Jesús San-Miguel-Ayanz & Sander Veraverbeke, 2022. "Anthropogenic and Lightning Fire Incidence and Burned Area in Europe," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-19, April.
    7. Wei Shan & Lisha Qiu & Ying Guo & Chengcheng Zhang & Zhichao Xu & Shuai Liu, 2022. "Spatiotemporal Distribution Characteristics of Fire Scars Further Prove the Correlation between Permafrost Swamp Wildfires and Methane Geological Emissions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-20, November.

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