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Climate velocity in inland standing waters

Author

Listed:
  • R. Iestyn Woolway

    (Dundalk Institute of Technology
    ECSAT)

  • Stephen C. Maberly

    (Lancaster Environment Centre)

Abstract

Inland standing waters are particularly vulnerable to increasing water temperature. Here, using a high-resolution numerical model, we find that the velocity of climate change in the surface of inland standing waters globally was 3.5 ± 2.3 km per decade from 1861 to 2005, which is similar to, or lower than, rates of active dispersal of some motile species. However, from 2006 to 2099, the velocity of climate change will increase to 8.7 ± 5.5 km per decade under a low-emission pathway such as Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 or 57.0 ± 17.0 km per decade under a high-emission pathway such as RCP 8.5, meaning that the thermal habitat in inland standing waters will move faster than the ability of some species to disperse to cooler areas. The fragmented distribution of standing waters in a landscape will restrict redistribution, even for species with high dispersal ability, so that the negative consequences of rapid warming for freshwater species are likely to be much greater than in terrestrial and marine realms.

Suggested Citation

  • R. Iestyn Woolway & Stephen C. Maberly, 2020. "Climate velocity in inland standing waters," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(12), pages 1124-1129, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:10:y:2020:i:12:d:10.1038_s41558-020-0889-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0889-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Kevin C. Rose & Britta Bierwagen & Scott D. Bridgham & Daren M. Carlisle & Charles P. Hawkins & N. LeRoy Poff & Jordan S. Read & Jason R. Rohr & Jasmine E. Saros & Craig E. Williamson, 2023. "Indicators of the effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(3), pages 1-20, March.
    2. Haimei Duan & Chunxue Shang & Kun Yang & Yi Luo, 2022. "Dynamic Response of Surface Water Temperature in Urban Lakes under Different Climate Scenarios—A Case Study in Dianchi Lake, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-11, September.
    3. Martin T. Dokulil & Elvira Eyto & Stephen C. Maberly & Linda May & Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer & R. Iestyn Woolway, 2021. "Increasing maximum lake surface temperature under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(3), pages 1-17, April.
    4. Xinyu Li & Shushi Peng & Yi Xi & R. Iestyn Woolway & Gang Liu, 2022. "Earlier ice loss accelerates lake warming in the Northern Hemisphere," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    5. Disha Sachan & Pankaj Kumar & Md. Saquib Saharwardi, 2022. "Contemporary climate change velocity for near-surface temperatures over India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(3), pages 1-19, August.
    6. R. Iestyn Woolway, 2023. "The pace of shifting seasons in lakes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.

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