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Electrification of light-duty vehicle fleet alone will not meet mitigation targets

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Listed:
  • Alexandre Milovanoff

    (University of Toronto)

  • I. Daniel Posen

    (University of Toronto)

  • Heather L. MacLean

    (University of Toronto)

Abstract

Climate change mitigation strategies are often technology-oriented, and electric vehicles (EVs) are a good example of something believed to be a silver bullet. Here we show that current US policies are insufficient to remain within a sectoral CO2 emission budget for light-duty vehicles, consistent with preventing more than 2 °C global warming, creating a mitigation gap of up to 19 GtCO2 (28% of the projected 2015–2050 light-duty vehicle fleet emissions). Closing the mitigation gap solely with EVs would require more than 350 million on-road EVs (90% of the fleet), half of national electricity demand and excessive amounts of critical materials to be deployed in 2050. Improving average fuel consumption of conventional vehicles, with stringent standards and weight control, would reduce the requirement for alternative technologies, but is unlikely to fully bridge the mitigation gap. There is therefore a need for a wide range of policies that include measures to reduce vehicle ownership and usage.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandre Milovanoff & I. Daniel Posen & Heather L. MacLean, 2020. "Electrification of light-duty vehicle fleet alone will not meet mitigation targets," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(12), pages 1102-1107, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:10:y:2020:i:12:d:10.1038_s41558-020-00921-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00921-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Xinglong & Zhao, Fuquan & Hao, Han & Liu, Zongwei, 2023. "Comparative analysis for different vehicle powertrains in terms of energy-saving potential and cost-effectiveness in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    2. Liang, Yanan & Kleijn, René & van der Voet, Ester, 2023. "Increase in demand for critical materials under IEA Net-Zero emission by 2050 scenario," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 346(C).
    3. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Cheng, Hao-Sen, 2021. "The impact mechanism of the ETS on CO2 emissions from the service sector: Evidence from Beijing and Shanghai," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    4. Kristian S. Nielsen & Kimberly A. Nicholas & Felix Creutzig & Thomas Dietz & Paul C. Stern, 2021. "The role of high-socioeconomic-status people in locking in or rapidly reducing energy-driven greenhouse gas emissions," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 6(11), pages 1011-1016, November.
    5. Dumortier, Jerome & Elobeid, Amani & Carriquiry, Miguel, 2022. "Light-duty vehicle fleet electrification in the United States and its effects on global agricultural markets," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    6. Brian Charles Barr & Hrund Ólöf Andradóttir & Throstur Thorsteinsson & Sigurður Erlingsson, 2021. "Mitigation of Suspendable Road Dust in a Subpolar, Oceanic Climate," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-16, August.
    7. Lee, Juyong & Cho, Youngsang, 2022. "National-scale electricity peak load forecasting: Traditional, machine learning, or hybrid model?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PD).
    8. Anastasia Soukhov & Ahmed Foda & Moataz Mohamed, 2022. "Electric Mobility Emission Reduction Policies: A Multi-Objective Optimization Assessment Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-21, September.
    9. Maxwell Woody & Michael T. Craig & Parth T. Vaishnav & Geoffrey M. Lewis & Gregory A. Keoleian, 2022. "Optimizing future cost and emissions of electric delivery vehicles," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 26(3), pages 1108-1122, June.
    10. Zhao, Jinyang & Yu, Yadong & Ren, Hongtao & Makowski, Marek & Granat, Janusz & Nahorski, Zbigniew & Ma, Tieju, 2022. "How the power-to-liquid technology can contribute to reaching carbon neutrality of the China's transportation sector?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(PA).
    11. Brückmann, Gracia, 2022. "The effects of policies providing information and trialling on the knowledge about and the intention to adopt new energy technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    12. James Archsmith & Erich Muehlegger & David S. Rapson, 2022. "Future Paths of Electric Vehicle Adoption in the United States: Predictable Determinants, Obstacles, and Opportunities," Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(1), pages 71-110.
    13. Ou, Yang & Kittner, Noah & Babaee, Samaneh & Smith, Steven J. & Nolte, Christopher G. & Loughlin, Daniel H., 2021. "Evaluating long-term emission impacts of large-scale electric vehicle deployment in the US using a human-Earth systems model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 300(C).
    14. Kang, Jidong & Ng, Tsan Sheng & Su, Bin & Milovanoff, Alexandre, 2021. "Electrifying light-duty passenger transport for CO2 emissions reduction: A stochastic-robust input–output linear programming model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    15. Gan, Yu & Wang, Michael & Lu, Zifeng & Kelly, Jarod, 2021. "Taking into account greenhouse gas emissions of electric vehicles for transportation de-carbonization," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    16. Issayev, Gani & Giri, Binod Raj & Elbaz, Ayman M. & Shrestha, Krishna P. & Mauss, Fabian & Roberts, William L. & Farooq, Aamir, 2022. "Ignition delay time and laminar flame speed measurements of ammonia blended with dimethyl ether: A promising low carbon fuel blend," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 1353-1370.
    17. Bu, Chujie & Cui, Xueqin & Li, Ruiyao & Li, Jin & Zhang, Yaxin & Wang, Can & Cai, Wenjia, 2021. "Achieving net-zero emissions in China’s passenger transport sector through regionally tailored mitigation strategies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    18. Taiebat, Morteza & Stolper, Samuel & Xu, Ming, 2022. "Widespread range suitability and cost competitiveness of electric vehicles for ride-hailing drivers," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 319(C).

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