Mapping partner drug resistance to guide antimalarial combination therapy policies in sub-Saharan Africa

Resistance to artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) threatens the global control of Plasmodium falciparum malaria. ACTs combine artemisinin-derived compounds with partner drugs to enable multiple mechanisms of clearance. Although ACTs remain widely effective in sub-Saharan Africa, long-standing circulation of parasite alleles associated with reduced partner drug susceptibility may contribute to the development of clinical resistance. We fitted a hierarchical Bayesian spatial model to data from over 500 molecular surveys to predict the prevalence and frequency of four key markers in transporter genes ( pfcrt 76T and pfmdr1 86Y, 184F, and 1246Y) in first-level administrative divisions in sub-Saharan Africa from the uptake of ACTs (2004 to 2009) to their widespread usage (2010 to 2018). Our models estimated that the pfcrt 76T mutation decreased in prevalence in 90% of regions; the pfmdr1 N86 and D1246 wild-type genotypes increased in prevalence in 96% and 82% of regions, respectively; and there was no significant directional selection at the pfmdr1 Y184F locus. Rainfall seasonality was the strongest predictor of the prevalence of wild-type genotypes, with other covariates, including first-line drug policy and transmission intensity more weakly associated. We lastly identified regions of high priority for enhanced surveillance that could signify decreased susceptibility to the local first-line ACT. Our results can be used to infer the degree of molecular resistance and magnitude of wild-type reversion in regions without survey data to inform therapeutic policy decisions.