IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nas/journl/v117y2020p32883-32890.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

COVID-19 lockdown induces disease-mitigating structural changes in mobility networks

Author

Listed:
  • Frank Schlosser

    (Computational Epidemiology Group, Robert Koch Institute, D-13353 Berlin, Germany; Institute for Theoretical Biology, Humboldt University of Berlin, D-10115 Berlin, Germany)

  • Benjamin F. Maier

    (Computational Epidemiology Group, Robert Koch Institute, D-13353 Berlin, Germany)

  • Olivia Jack

    (Computational Epidemiology Group, Robert Koch Institute, D-13353 Berlin, Germany)

  • David Hinrichs

    (Computational Epidemiology Group, Robert Koch Institute, D-13353 Berlin, Germany)

  • Adrian Zachariae

    (Computational Epidemiology Group, Robert Koch Institute, D-13353 Berlin, Germany)

  • Dirk Brockmann

    (Computational Epidemiology Group, Robert Koch Institute, D-13353 Berlin, Germany; Institute for Theoretical Biology, Humboldt University of Berlin, D-10115 Berlin, Germany)

Abstract

In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic many countries implemented containment measures to reduce disease transmission. Studies using digital data sources show that the mobility of individuals was effectively reduced in multiple countries. However, it remains unclear whether these reductions caused deeper structural changes in mobility networks and how such changes may affect dynamic processes on the network. Here we use movement data of mobile phone users to show that mobility in Germany has not only been reduced considerably: Lockdown measures caused substantial and long-lasting structural changes in the mobility network. We find that long-distance travel was reduced disproportionately strongly. The trimming of long-range network connectivity leads to a more local, clustered network and a moderation of the “small-world” effect. We demonstrate that these structural changes have a considerable effect on epidemic spreading processes by “flattening” the epidemic curve and delaying the spread to geographically distant regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank Schlosser & Benjamin F. Maier & Olivia Jack & David Hinrichs & Adrian Zachariae & Dirk Brockmann, 2020. "COVID-19 lockdown induces disease-mitigating structural changes in mobility networks," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(52), pages 32883-32890, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nas:journl:v:117:y:2020:p:32883-32890
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.pnas.org/content/117/52/32883.full
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Joshua Driesen & Ziad El-Khatib & Niklas Wulkow & Mitchell Joblin & Iskriyana Vasileva & Andreas Glücker & Valentin Kruspel & Catherine Vogel, 2021. "Data-Powered Positive Deviance during the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic—An Ecological Pilot Study of German Districts," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(18), pages 1-29, September.
    2. Yu, Ling & Zhao, Pengjun & Tang, Junqing & Pang, Liang, 2023. "Changes in tourist mobility after COVID-19 outbreaks," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    3. Jiang, Shixiong & Cai, Canhuang, 2022. "Unraveling the dynamic impacts of COVID-19 on metro ridership: An empirical analysis of Beijing and Shanghai, China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 158-170.
    4. Möllers, Alessa & Specht, Sebastian & Wessel, Jan, 2022. "The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and government intervention on active mobility," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 356-375.
    5. Sieg, Gernot & Wessel, Jan, 2022. "I would if I could: Passing through VAT reductions in the german rail industry," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    6. Li Huang & Oliver Zhen Li & Baiqiang Wang & Zilong Zhang, 2022. "Individualism and the fight against COVID-19," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-20, December.
    7. Cécile Aubert & Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron, 2021. "The relative power of individual distancing efforts and public policies to curb the COVID-19 epidemics," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(5), pages 1-21, May.
    8. Triambak, S. & Mahapatra, D.P., 2021. "A random walk Monte Carlo simulation study of COVID-19-like infection spread," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 574(C).
    9. Tianyi Li & Jiawen Luo & Cunrui Huang, 2021. "Urban Epidemic Hazard Index for Chinese Cities: Why Did Small Cities Become Epidemic Hotspots?," Papers 2103.05189, arXiv.org.
    10. Kazufumi Tsuboi & Naoya Fujiwara & Ryo Itoh, 2022. "Influence of trip distance and population density on intra-city mobility patterns in Tokyo during COVID-19 pandemic," Papers 2201.01398, arXiv.org.
    11. Bohnensteffen, Sarah & Mühlhan, Jannek & Saidani, Younes, 2021. "Mobilität während der Corona-Pandemie," WISTA – Wirtschaft und Statistik, Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis), Wiesbaden, vol. 73(3), pages 89-105.
    12. Chen, Ruoyu & Zhang, Min & Zhou, Jiangping, 2023. "Jobs-housing relationships before and amid COVID-19: An excess-commuting approach," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    13. Cooper, Daniel & Garga, Vaishali & Luengo-Prado, María José & Tang, Jenny, 2023. "The mitigating effect of masks on the spread of Covid-19," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    14. Timo Mitze & Reinhold Kosfeld, 2022. "The propagation effect of commuting to work in the spatial transmission of COVID-19," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 5-31, January.
    15. Gorzelanczyk Piotr & Szubert Paweł & Olechnowicz Jolanta & Jurkovič Martin, 2023. "Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Changing Communication Behavior of Students," LOGI – Scientific Journal on Transport and Logistics, Sciendo, vol. 14(1), pages 89-97, January.
    16. Eisenmann, Christine & Nobis, Claudia & Kolarova, Viktoriya & Lenz, Barbara & Winkler, Christian, 2021. "Transport mode use during the COVID-19 lockdown period in Germany: The car became more important, public transport lost ground," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 60-67.
    17. Marion Bachelet & Matthias Kalkuhl & Nicolas Koch, 2022. "What if working from home will stick? Distributional and climate impacts for Germany," CEPA Discussion Papers 41, Center for Economic Policy Analysis.
    18. Bachelet, Marion & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Koch, Nicolas, 2021. "What If Working from Home Will Stick? Distributional and Climate Impacts for Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 14642, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Ugofilippo Basellini & Diego Alburez-Gutierrez & Emanuele Del Fava & Daniela Perrotta & Marco Bonetti & Carlo Giovanni Camarda & Emilio Zagheni, 2020. "Linking excess mortality to Google mobility data during the COVID-19 pandemic in England and Wales," Working Papers axehlaypkgkzhr-blqv4, French Institute for Demographic Studies.
    20. Marco Dueñas & Mercedes Campi & Luis E. Olmos, 2021. "Changes in mobility and socioeconomic conditions during the COVID-19 outbreak," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, December.
    21. Jack Sutton & Golnaz Shahtahmassebi & Haroldo V Ribeiro & Quentin S Hanley, 2022. "Population density and spreading of COVID-19 in England and Wales," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(3), pages 1-19, March.
    22. Ana Lorena Jiménez-Preciado & Nora Gavira-Durán, 2021. "Social Mobility Patterns in the World's Populated Cities Through COVID-19," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(3), pages 1-15, Julio - S.
    23. Oliu-Barton, Miquel & Pradelski, Bary S.R., 2021. "Green zoning: An effective policy tool to tackle the Covid-19 pandemic," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(8), pages 981-986.
    24. Vrain, Emilie & Wilson, Charlie & Andrews, Barnaby, 2022. "The discontinuance of low carbon digital products and services," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nas:journl:v:117:y:2020:p:32883-32890. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Eric Cain (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.pnas.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.