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The Probability of Arrest for Drunk Driving: An Empirical Investigation of a Predator-Prey Model

Author

Listed:
  • Bulent Uyar

    (University of Northern Iowa)

  • Bryce Kanago

    (University of Northern Iowa)

  • Sam Mazuk

    (University of Northern Iowa)

Abstract

We measure the probability of arrest for drunk driving as the number of arrests in Iowa counties divided by the number of incidents imputed from CDC survey data. Both the number of officers per-capita and their allocation are statistically significant determinants of the probability of arrest, but their elasticities are small. Our rough imputation indicates a comparatively small benefit from hiring an additional officer. This may help explain why arrest rates are so low and suggests that policies that reduce excessive drinking, raise the return to police efforts, and reduce recidivism may be more effective than simply hiring additional officers.

Suggested Citation

  • Bulent Uyar & Bryce Kanago & Sam Mazuk, 2019. "The Probability of Arrest for Drunk Driving: An Empirical Investigation of a Predator-Prey Model," Journal of Economic Insight, Missouri Valley Economic Association, vol. 45(2), pages 37-68.
    • Handle: RePEc:mve:journl:v:45:y:2019:i:2:p:37-68
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

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