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Disinflation in Chile, Colombia and Mexico: Do Domestic Monetary Policy Changes Deserve Credit?


  • William Miles

    (Wichita State University)


This paper examines inflation in three Latin American nations. All of the nations have experienced higher-than-desired inflation in years past, and all have seen a palpable decrease in inflation in recent decades. We thus test for structural change in the dynamics of inflation. We find that all three have undergone some significant break in the mean or persistence of price changes. The break dates, however, do not generally correspond closely to any highly publicized changes in monetary policy such as inflation targeting or central bank independence. This finding contradicts some previous studies which purport to find a large effect of certain policies-formal targets, central bank independence, etc.-on inflation. Indeed further examination suggests some credit for disinflation should go to external factors. This is somewhat worrisome, as it indicates that a change to a more volatile global macroeconomic environment could make it costly for emerging markets to maintain price stability.

Suggested Citation

  • William Miles, 2011. "Disinflation in Chile, Colombia and Mexico: Do Domestic Monetary Policy Changes Deserve Credit?," Journal of Economic Insight (formerly the Journal of Economics (MVEA)), Missouri Valley Economic Association, vol. 37(2), pages 19-37.
  • Handle: RePEc:mve:journl:v:37:y:2011:i:2:p:19-37

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    Cited by:

    1. William Miles & Samuel Schreyer, 2014. "Is monetary policy non-linear in Latin America? a quantile regression approach to Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Peru," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 48(2), pages 169-183, April-Jun.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development


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