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Republic-Monarchy Referendum: The Solution of an Enigma

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  • Vanni Mengotto
  • Andrea Venturini

Abstract

Even though half a century has passed since the institutional referendumwhich officially took place on June 2, 1946 - establishing the republicanform of Italian State - the disputes that arose about hypotheses offraudulent vote manipulation, overturning the actual vote result, are stillrelevant today. Without any intention of making a political analysis of referendumfacts, this work has the purpose to give an end to voting disputes,demonstrating in a statistic-probabilistic way, using Benford Law, theabsence of effective ballots manipulations. Besides, it was demonstrated,using simulations involving real votes, that potential fraudulent vote manipulationswould be discovered in most of the cases, especially the onesable to reverse the result.

Suggested Citation

  • Vanni Mengotto & Andrea Venturini, 2012. "Republic-Monarchy Referendum: The Solution of an Enigma," Rivista di storia economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 3, pages 487-526.
    • Handle: RePEc:mul:jrkmxm:doi:10.1410/38527:y:2012:i:3:p:487-526
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