Generational Imbalances in Mezzogiorno Losing Highly Skilled Young People

Low birth rate, population decline and growing generational imbalances represent a serious concern at national level, and an actual social emergency in Southern Italy. The declining birth-rate and younger generations emigration represent the main causes for younger generations decline, whereas adults, elderly and very elderly tend to grow thus engendering a generational and regional imbalance, especially in Italian Southern regions. As population grows old, the elderly component grows both in labour market and in society structure itself. Human capital migration from Southern Italy has exacerbated demographic decline and population ageing, thus exerting a critical socio-economic impact on the regions of migration. Over the past decade, the number of young university graduates who have emigrated abroad or to Centre and Northern Italy has doubled and shows an increasingly selective character since it seems to involve high-educated subjects. Most Southern young migrants hold a five-year bachelor degree, even though recent surveys show that such profile is decreasing in favour of three-year bachelor degrees, which are considered enough for many job opportunities. According to a long-term perspective, Italian demographic decline is going to worsen during the next decades. Southern Italy in particular will be involved in such ageing process. By 2050, 80% of Italian population decline will involve Southern Italy; such area is going to lose 3.6 million of its actual inhabitants, whereas Central Italy will lose 800 thousand and Northern Italy 100 thousand. In Southern regions both young people and working-age people in general will decrease by a third, in Norther Italy such decrease will be –9%, and in Central Italy –15%. It is clear how migrations play a central role in such an outcome. This phenomenon, in fact, will keep draining human resources to Southern Italy society and economy while, on the other hand, it will slow demographic recession in Northern regions for the next three decades.