IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mul/jqat1f/doi10.1427-3678y2000i2p291-322.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

La previsione macroeconomica: alcuni luoghi comuni da sfatare

Author

Listed:
  • Stefano Siviero
  • Daniele Terlizzese

Abstract

The forecasting profession, especially when producing forecasts intended to support economic policy, does not currently enjoy a good reputation. Complaints are sometimes voiced about its lack of scientific discipline, which in turn implies that the forecast results may be viewed as arbitrary. At other times, it is the excessively mechanical nature of the forecasting process which is criticised, on the grounds that it prevents a proper evaluation of any information concerning changes that alter the functioning of the economic system. Moreover, the use of structural models is often deemed superfluous, or even dangerous, and reduced forms are suggested as a preferable alternative. Drawing on the actual forecasting experience at the Bank of Italy, this paper argues that these views stem largely from a biased perception of how forecasting works, what it consists of and which goals it pursues. In particular, forecasting does not simply amount to producing a set of figures: rather, it aims at assembling a fully-fledged view - one may call it a "story" - of what could happen: a story that has to be internally consistent, whose logical plausibility can be assessed, whose structure is sufficiently articulated to allow one to make a systematic comparison with the wealth of information that accumulates as time goes by. This implies that the forecasts are not the result of a black-box process that completely lacks discipline; neither are they the outcome of a purely mechanical process that cannot take new information into account. This paper tries to show that forecasting can be rigorous, not mechanical, informative, and useful even in the face of unprecedented situations.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano Siviero & Daniele Terlizzese, 2000. "La previsione macroeconomica: alcuni luoghi comuni da sfatare," Rivista italiana degli economisti, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 291-322.
  • Handle: RePEc:mul:jqat1f:doi:10.1427/3678:y:2000:i:2:p:291-322
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rivisteweb.it/download/article/10.1427/3678
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers

    File URL: https://www.rivisteweb.it/doi/10.1427/3678
    Download Restriction: no

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mul:jqat1f:doi:10.1427/3678:y:2000:i:2:p:291-322. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: https://www.rivisteweb.it/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.